Gamble in the Valley

The quest for peace in Jammu and Kashmir has invariably been confused with absence of violence. HARISH KHARE on Mr. Vajpayee's ceasefire initiative.

AS THE gun has been for over a decade now the principal instrument of disputation, the quest for peace in Jammu and Kashmir has invariably been confused with absence of violence. And for the same reason, any suggestion that the gun be put back in the holster has been unnerving to almost all the relevant players. Some fear that if the gun is not being brandished and if the headlines are not proclaiming dead bodies, there is no ``Kashmir crisis''. Hence, the extra- anxiety - in Srinagar and Islamabad - to denounce ``ceasefire'' whenever this or that group wants to experiment with a strategy of absence of violence.

The Prime Minister, Mr. Atal Behari Vajpayee's Ramzan initiative - the declaration last Sunday that the Indian security forces would not initiate any ``operations'' on their own - has once again caught every relevant player in the Kashmir conflict on the wrong foot. The question is how is this Ramzan initiative different from the short-lived ceasefire experiment conducted by the Majid Dar faction of the Hizbul Mujahideen, arguably the biggest and the most indigenous of the groups having access to guns and Pakistani patronage?

It is different for the simple reason that the Indian side has decided to accept the onus for announcing a ceasefire. It means that at least New Delhi is reasonably speaking in one voice. Before the announcement was made, the Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir, Dr. Farooq Abdullah, was invited to New Delhi, where he assured the Prime Minister and his men that he was game for the Ramzan initiative. For now, Dr. Abdullah does not appear to be as insecure as he was last time when a ceasefire came into effect. The new Army Chief was also reported to be ``enthusiastic'' about the idea; for sometime now, the army brass has been arguing publicly that there could only be a political solution to the Kashmir crisis. The Union Home Minister, Mr. Lal Krishna Advani, was also a party to the ceasefire move.

And before the announcement was made, there was considerable homework. Policy-makers in New Delhi are proceeding on the assumption that the All-Party Hurriyat Conference leadership finds itself unable to ignore altogether the public quest for an escape from unrelenting and unending violence; the APHC has, on the other hand, to honour the tactical preferences of its Pakistani puppeteers. That the Hurriyat leadership is deeply divided must be the worst-kept secret in downtown Srinagar. It is also probably correct to suggest that at least some of the Hurriyat leaders have calculated that Indian electoral democracy perhaps provides the easiest route to power.

For a change, there was some fancy footwork by the Indian side; Mr. Abdul Ghani Lone was allowed to travel to Pakistan to attend the wedding of his son to the daughter of Mr. Amanullah Khan, leader of the Pakistani faction of the Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front. Earlier, Mirwaiz Umar Farooq was allowed to attend the OIC meeting in Qatar, and must have seen for himself the inability of Pakistani diplomacy to excite international imagination over the ``struggle'' in Kashmir.

And somewhere in the background, no doubt, was the helpful nudging from the Americans. As it is, there is a whole lot of nervousness about the Taliban, and the Pakistani connection with Osama Bin Laden. The lame-duck Administration in Washington would be quite delighted if some kind of a ``breakthrough'' gets credited to the President, Mr. Bill Clinton's achievement column.

Yet, the trump card is still in Pakistan's hand, and it has to determine for itself whether it should allow the ``peace process'' to take off. However, there are factors Pakistan will find hard to ignore. For a change, and probably for the first time, a visibly Muslim clerical personality, the Imam of Delhi's Jama Masjid, has become one of the facilitators of the peace process. The willingness of the Vajpayee administration to involve Imam Ahmed Bukhari is a remarkable essay in pragmatism, and is bound to yield a rich dividend. Pakistan will not find it easy to ignore the long-term implications of the Bukhari factor.

After all, the Shahi Jama Masjid in the old city of Delhi has been the site of incorrigible anti-BJPism; only a few months ago the young Imam was being dubbed by the Sangh Parivar hotheads as an ``ISI agent'', and the BJP itself was ever willing to denounce as ``politics of appeasement'' all those who sought to enlist the Imam's presumed influence with the Muslim masses. Now, it is the same Imam Ahmed Bukhari who is being encouraged to establish communication with Syed Salahuddin and other groups on both sides of the divide.

Above all, neither Pakistan nor other groups on this side of the Line of Control will be able to doubt the capacity of the Vajpayee Government to sell a ``settlement'' at home.

The BJP Government is entitled to make much of the international endorsement of the Prime Minister's Ramzan initiative.

The Opposition parties too will have no option but to back the Ramzan initiative. And, who knows, General Pervez Musharraf may have calculated that the only way to end his international isolation is to allow the ``peace process'' to find its own equillibrium.

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