Taiwan arms request, a test for Bush

By F.J. Khergamvala

TOKYO, JAN. 9. The incoming Bush administration should soon receive a shopping list of weapons systems from Taiwan. For Taiwan's Generals, the response from Washington DC would provide a test of the island's politicians' claim that a Republican administration, backed by a Republican House of Representatives in the U.S. would be more sympathetic to Taiwan's security concerns than the outgoing Clinton administration.

This time every year, almost without exception, Taiwan seeks Congressional and public relations support for its arms purchases, by leaking information to the media in the U.S. and at home. Taiwan and the U.S. hold arms sales talks every year in April. The New York Times reported on Monday from Shanghai that on Taiwan's wish list are four Kidd- class guided missile destroyers. If obtained, the four weapons platforms worth some $600 million without special fitments, would be the most sophisticated in the Taiwanese Navy, which had last year sought the more advanced Arleigh-Burke class ships to counter the recent acquisitions of two Russian built Sovremenny class destroyers and Kilo-class submarines by China.

Taiwan is also likely to be looking to buy anti- submarine aircraft, airborne early warning systems and off-the- shelf older vintage submarines. The list could become public once the Pentagon submits its recommendations to the U.S. Congress. Last year the U.S. justified its refusal to sell the four Aegis equipped guided-missile Arleigh-Burke destroyers at $1.5 billion each because, ostensibly, they were too sophisticated for Taiwan to operate.

Overall, it has been long-standing U.S. policy to maintain a posture of ``strategic ambiguity.'' This policy seeks to both deter China from using military means to possess Taiwan and also discourage Taiwan from believing that U.S. support would go so far as to encourage a proclamation of independence. Beijing's objection to arms supplies to Taiwan rests on the plea that such sales encourage Taiwan's resistance to a dialogue on peaceful unification.

The record does suggest Republican administrations being more supportive of Taiwanese requests than the Democrats. Almost every analyst cites the example of Mr. George Bush Sr. deciding to end his one term in the White House by agreeing to sell 150 F-16 fighter aircraft. That was a special case, timed to create more jobs and target more votes for Mr. Bush and partly to force Beijing to keep its part of a deal to exile a dissident Chinese to the U.S., soon after Tiananmen.

Few will highlight the fact that for example, Mr. Ronald Reagan on whom the Taiwanese placed much faith, was the President who first committed the U.S., to a gradual scaling down of arms supplies to Taiwan. Factors more complex than the simple calculus of a cross straits threat from the mainland intrude into arms sales decisions.

They include the political pay-offs to U.S. arms producers who may have funded one or the other candidate, their Congressional connections, U.S.-China equations and also the Pentagon's intention to use Taiwan as a shop window to demonstrate hardware to other potential East Asian clients.

This year the issue acquires added political complexity because of the controversial National Missile Defence (NMD) or sea based Theatre Missile Defence (TMD) issues and Mr. George W. Bush's campaign assurances to go ahead with missile defence.

The 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, which is domestic law and hence technically more important to the U.S. than the ``three communiques'' with China, can be cited by the U.S. to confront any Chinese opposition. It leaves no scope at all for a Chinese veto.

For example, the 1979 Act, in Section 2, says that the policy of the U.S. is ``to provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character.'' Then, in elaboration, the Act adds, ``the U.S. will make available to Taiwan such defence articles and defence services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defence capability.'' Then, it is explicitly stated that the President and Congress will determine the nature and quantity of such items ``based solely upon their judgment'' of the needs of Taiwan.

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Section  : International
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