Southern States - Kerala-Thiruvananthapuram   

Menon's entry a blow to CPI(M)

By C. Gouridasan Nair

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM Sept. 2. A very major imponderable has been added to the contest in the Ernakulam Lok Sabha by-election with the veteran Communist leader, V. Viswanatha Menon's entry into the fray.

Mr. Menon, a leader of pre-independence vintage and Finance Minister in the 1987-'91 Nayanar Cabinet, has dropped a virtual bombshell into the poll scene with his decision to contest the by-election as an `independent' candidate. The `independent' tag is a matter of convenience, as he is in the fray because the CPI(M) dissidents in Ernakulam, organised under the banner of the EMS-AKG Study Centre, wanted him to contest the poll. And that is a major blow to the CPI(M), particularly its Ernakulam district committee.

Mr. Menon is technically not a member of the CPI(M), his having shown no interest in renewing his party membership in the wake of the factional turmoil in the party over the last several years. Even when he was active, he was wont to withdraw into a shell and never allowed himself to be bracketed with the run-of-the-mill politicians. He cut himself off public activities following his removal from the CPI(M) State committee at the Palakkad State conference, which saw an entire bunch of senior leaders being ousted from the party State committee.

Although not many seem to remember it, Mr. Menon was the only Finance Minister to present a zero-deficit budget in the State, though perhaps not in the strict sense of the term. He did that twice, but the State finances and the general policy orientation in those and the subsequent years were not in sync with the route map that he and his team were probably trying to chart. The experiment failed. He was defeated in the next Assembly election, not because of his budget, but because the sympathy wave following Rajiv Gandhi's assassination swept the State. Then came the scorching years of factional combat in the State CPI(M) and a hurt Mr. Menon retreated from the public scene with deep scars.

His decision to return to electoral politics, with the knowledge that it is going to be nothing short of an uphill task for him to make an impression on the majority of the electorate, is in a way an outcome of the ill-treatment that he had received at the hands of his partymen. A seasoned trade union leader, he is certain to appeal to a large number of the pro-Left trade union activists in Ernakulam. He has already made it clear that he has sought the support of everyone, including the BJP.

If the BJP does indeed support him, the irony of it all would be too striking to miss the attention of the voters. The BJP has a committed vote base of around 75,000 votes in the constituency. This, coupled with votes that could flow in his direction from the none-too-insignificant islands of discontent in and on the margins of the CPI(M), could take him much beyond the one-lakh mark. Voters disenchanted with the UDF and LDF and the pro-Left Hindu votes could also be his. What all this would add up to is a major headache for the CPI(M) and its nominee, Sebastian Paul.

The CPI(M) would now be forced to go all out to shore up its support base, make inroads into non-traditional vote bases and ensure that a sizeable section of the Latin Catholic vote falls in its kitty. Ernakulam has seldom been friendly towards the Left and Mr. Menon's entry should make it all the more difficult for the CPI(M) and its allies.

On the flip side, Mr. Menon's request for support of the BJP, though shrewd politics, would give legitimacy to the BJP, which has been knocking on the electoral doors of Kerala for long. Mr. Menon has made the right noises to endear himself to the BJP and all non-Congress voters by describing his candidature as a protest against the CPI(M) bid to enthrone the Congress chief, Sonia Gandhi, in Delhi. And the EMS-AKG Study Centre, built on the plank of resistance to the `social democratic deviation' of the State CPI(M) leadership, would have a little bit of explaining to do on how it could go in for an extended handshake with the BJP. That is, if matters come to that.

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