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India avoids isolating Myanmar

By C. Raja Mohan

NEW DELHI Sept. 3. The Government's high-level defence engagement with Myanmar this week draws an unforgiving spotlight on to India's ties with an important neighbour whose military rulers are under growing international pressure to ease their tight grip on power.

As the political crisis deepens in Myanmar amidst reports of a hunger strike by the leader of the democratic Opposition, Aung San Suu Kyi, two high-level defence visits are underway between the two countries.

The Naval Chief, Admiral Madhvendra Singh, left today for an official visit to Myanmar. Meanwhile, the Air Chief of Myanmar, Maj. Gen. Myat Hein, is in the capital. The Telecommunications Minister, Arun Shourie, has returned from a visit to Myanmar. And before him, the Commerce Minister, Arun Jaitley, was in Yangon.

Although these visits were planned some time ago and are part of a burgeoning bilateral relationship, the political gap between current approaches of the international community and India towards the military regime in Myanmar is widening.

Myanmar has come under increased global criticism in recent weeks as the United States and the European Union slapped fresh sanctions demanding political change. Japan, the biggest donor, has frozen new assistance. Even the traditionally non-interventionist South East Asian neighbours have stepped up their criticism of the military regime.

The pressure on Myanmar was triggered by violent attacks on Ms. Suu Kyi and her followers three months ago. At the end of May, Ms. Suu Kyi was once again taken into custody. Next week she will complete 100 days of the latest round of confinement. Yangon says Ms. Suu Kyi is being held for her own protection.

While denying reports of a hunger strike by Ms. Suu Kyi, the Government of Myanmar has unveiled a reshuffle that lends a civilian touch to the Government and has promised to implement a seven-point road map for democracy.

At the heart of the plan is an offer to revive the National Convention on drafting a Constitution and then to hold elections. The constitutional convention was suspended in 1996 after Ms. Suu Kyi's supporters walked out complaining that the military leadership wanted to retain much of its current powers.

The top leaders of the military Government have also adopted civilian titles. The all-powerful chairman of the State Peace and Development Council, Maj. Gen. Than Shwe, has taken over the newly-created post of President and has handed over the Prime Ministership to Gen. Khin Nyunt, who was the chief of intelligence.

While these moves might be seen as the first signs of a potential political liberalisation, the opponents of the military within and outside the nation remain unconvinced.

To be credible, they argue, the government must immediately release Ms. Suu Kyi. In his speech promising political reform last week, the new Prime Minister Gen. Khin Nyunt, apparently gave no indications on setting Ms. Suu Kyi free any time soon.

While the rest of the world is piling up the pressure on Myanmar, India appears firm in its conviction that engagement with the regime in Yangon must continue. At the same time, India has also formally stated its support to democratisation and political reconciliation in Myanmar.

While critics might argue that India has been too mealy-mouthed in its support for political change in Myanmar, sources here say India cannot afford the luxury of adopting a hostile posture towards the military rulers in Myanmar.

It is being argued that India has to cope with a complex situation in Myanmar and maintain a delicate balance between its general support to political reform in a key neighbour and the pursuit of its many interests there.

The suggestion is that India has far too much at stake in a stable and cooperative relationship with Myanmar. New Delhi, which strongly supported Ms. Suu Kyi in the late 1980s and early 1990s, has begun a cautious engagement with the military rulers since the mid 1990s.

Effective management of the security situation in the northeast and the strategic importance of Myanmar as a land and sea bridge to South East Asia are the factors that have driven New Delhi into an expansive relationship with Yangon in recent years.

India, however, is not alone in its cautious approach to the developments in Myanmar. China, the other large Asian neighbour of Myanmar, has firmly opposed sanctions against Yangon and underlined the importance of avoiding external intervention in the internal affairs of the nation.

China's relationship with Myanmar — political, economic and military — has dramatically expanded since the late 1980s. Last month, the Chinese leadership received a high-power delegation from Myanmar led by Gen. Maung Aye, who ranks as the number two in the political hierarchy in Yangon.

Having successfully built solid ties with the two Asian giants-India and China-who warily watch each other's presence in Myanmar, the military rulers in Yangon have reasons to be confident that it will be impossible completely to isolate the nation.

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