The Hindu : U.S. holds back Israeli Arrow

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Friday, Sep 05, 2003

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U.S. holds back Israeli Arrow

By C. Raja Mohan

NEW DELHI Sept. 4. The Bush administration is yet to make up its mind on letting Israel sell the Arrow missile defence system to India. Washington has not yet said "no" to the sale; nor has it said "yes". The review in Washington of the proposed transaction is "ongoing", sources here say.

Although there is considerable focus on the Indo-Israeli defence cooperation on the eve of the Prime Minister, Ariel Sharon's visit to India next week, the decisions on transfer of the Arrow missile system might have to remain on hold, at least for the moment.

The American debate on Arrow sales to India has remained unfinished as deep divisions within the Bush administration have stalled an early decision. While the White House and the Pentagon are said to view favourably the transfer of the Arrow system to India, the State Department and the non-proliferation lobby in Washington are opposed to the deal.

The Arrow system, capable of defending against short and medium range missiles, was developed by Israel in collaboration with the United States and needs Washington's approval for sale to third countries.

Israel has deployed a battery of the Arrow missiles during the American war against Iraq earlier this year and two others are being readied for deployment. It will be a while though until Israel has surplus Arrow missiles for sale.

If the sale of the Arrow to India is eventually given the green signal in Washington, it will be the first such transfer by Israel. India has not made a formal request for buying the Arrow system, but it is widely known that New Delhi has been looking around for a suitable weapon to counter the missile threat from Pakistan.

Israel has already sold India the Green Pine radar that tracks incoming missiles and feeds them into the Arrow's battle management system. The U.S. last month said it had no objections to the Israeli sale of Phalcon airborne radars to India. The missing link in this triad is the Arrow.

An inter-agency review process was launched in Washington last year when Israel apparently sought American clearance for the sale. The opponents of the deal have marshalled four arguments.

First, the sale would further destabilise the already tense military relations between India and Pakistan. Second, India's acquisition of missile defence capabilities might lead to an arms race with Pakistan which might either expand its offensive nuclear capabilities or seek to buy defensive systems of its own.

It is also being argued that the sale of the Arrow might violate the Missile Technology Control Regime that limits the transfer of missiles and associated technologies. Fourth, it is being suggested that such a sale could set a precedent for missile sales by other countries and increase proliferation risks all around.

Opposition to the Arrow sale in the U.S. is being reinforced by the formal concerns conveyed by Islamabad to Washington on the regional security implications of an Indo-Israeli deal.

But the supporters of the sale counter by saying the sale of defensive systems might stabilise nuclear deterrence between India and Pakistan and reduce the incentives for Islamabad to exploit the current nuclear stalemate to promote cross-border terrorism.

The ideologues in the White House and the Pentagon who are intellectually committed to missile defence believe the State Department might read the provisions of MTCR too narrowly. The MTCR does not prohibit the sale of full missile systems but only urges a careful consideration.

The American supporters of Arrow sales suggest that the spread of non-nuclear missile defences might be preferable to the proliferation of missiles that can deliver nuclear weapons. They emphasise a political approach to the question rather than a legalistic one that is being adopted by the non-proliferation community in Washington.

The American debate on the Arrow is complicated by the fact that the U.S. has a competing missile defence system, the Patriot, which has been sold to other countries. Unlike Arrow, the Patriot reportedly does not attract the provisions of the MTCR.

The Indian purchase of either Arrow or Patriot missiles would have to wait until the review in Washington is clinched in favour of New Delhi and there is greater understanding on the full range of issues relating to missile defence.

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