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Solapur bypoll a test-run for BJP

By Mahesh Vijapurkar

MUMBAI SEPT. 9. It could have been just another byelection sans a contest, like most of them have been since 1999 in Maharashtra. But with the Bharatiya Janata Party wanting to make it a test-run for next year's elections to both the Lok Sabha and the Maharashtra Assembly, the Solapur Lok Sabha seat, due for polls on September 26, has assumed significant proportions.

Since in the BJP — and the Shiv Sena's — calculations, the polls to the Lok Sabha and the Assembly may be advanced from September to February 2004, the party knows it is taking a calculated risk: a win would set the tone for a more confident foray into the elections later in alliance with the Sena. Equally, a loss could make it appear poorer in voter perception "but such gambles cannot be avoided", a BJP office-bearer said.

The Solapur parliamentary constituency in southern Maharashtra is a general seat that the Chief Minister, Sushilkumar Shinde — though a Dalit and entitled to stand from a reserved seat — contested and won. On his appointment as Chief Minister, he quit and contested the Solapur Assembly seat, which was vacated by the Congress Minister for Dairy Development, Anandrao Deokate. Now, the party has fielded Mr. Deokate for the Lok Sabha seat.

To check Mr. Deokate's plans, the BJP has fielded Pratapsinh Mohite-Patil, a former Minister in the 1995-99 BJP-Sena Government and brother of Vijaysinh Mohite-Patil, now a Nationalist Congress Party strongman from the region. The duo wields considerable influence in the district and both have ambitions they want to realise by being in different parties. The BJP nominee is an MLC and a cooperative baron as well.

The BJP's decision to contest the bypoll, close to an all-important general election, has come as a surprise to political observers because in the previous byelections it had gone in for token contests and, in the past, lost the Bhokardhan Assembly seat it held. When Mr. Shinde needed to win the Solapur Assembly seat, both the Sena and BJP made it a no-contest without assigning any reasons.

Mr. Mohite-Patil is a man of tremendous resources. The party does not need to chip in to oil his election campaign which Gopinath Munde, the BJP State unit chief, has decided to run. Mr. Mohite-Patil may attract attention from the NCP cadres, since the two partners, the NCP and the Congress, have been lukewarm towards each other in all the polls. And, the BJP is hoping that its candidate would en-cash on his family ties.

If that were to happen, the ruling alliance could be in for a shock. And on that factor, the BJP has decided to take the risk and roll the dice. It thinks it has everything in its favour: the drought conditions — Solapur is one of the ten districts declared as drought-hit — and "no work in the Chief Minister's home district" as the campaign theme. The Sena has promised to get into the act.

Now it is for the NCP-Congress to respond because in 1996, the seat was taken by the BJP's Lingraj Valyal.

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