The Hindu : LDF sees a favourable wind in by-poll

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Sunday, Sep 21, 2003

Southern States

Southern States - Kerala-Thiruvananthapuram

LDF sees a favourable wind in by-poll

By C. Gouridasan Nair

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM Sept. 20. The campaign for the September 23 Ernakulam Lok Sabha by-election, which began promising little by way of excitement, appears to be turning into a milestone in Kerala's political history with a series of developments helping the Opposition LDF take the battle into the inner lines of this UDF bastion.

As the LDF leaders see it, a wind favouring their candidate is becoming stronger behind the facade of disinterestedness in this mini coastal metropolis. They are not speaking of an Opposition victory as yet, but feel that the constituency is witnessing a sharp shift in Muslim votes away from the UDF and think that this, coupled with the votes that might flow in the LDF's favour from the embittered Karunakaran loyalists, might make the going tough for the UDF nominee, M.O. John.

What is most significant about the by-poll in their reckoning is the way the support base of the ruling UDF has collapsed within a short span of a couple of weeks. From what one sees in different parts of the constituency, this collapse is most evident among Muslim voters who are visibly unhappy with the way the Marad rehabilitation issue has been handled by the Antony Government.

Although LDF leaders do not discount the possibility of the People's Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Poonthura Siraj, taking away some of Muslim votes, they expect a chunk of the roughly two-lakh Muslim votes in the constituency to harden in favour of their candidate, Sebastian Paul. Several Muslim organisations have thrown their lot with the LDF, some openly, others very discreetly. Adopting a pro-active line, the CPI(M) leaders have begun addressing exclusive Muslim family gatherings to explain why they expect the Muslim votes to be cast in their favour. What one sees on the rival side is the absence of senior Muslim League leaders on the campaign scene.

The Indian National League leader, Ibrahim Sulaiman Sait, is active on the campaign front. So are some of the Muslim outfits who have come out with pamphlets calling upon members of the community to cast their votes against the UDF nominee and ensure that the `votes of protest' do not get split. The latest issues of some of the publications being brought out by certain Muslim outfits also have hit out at the Chief Minister, A.K. Antony's handling of the Marad issue.

Talking to The Hindu here today, the CPI(M) State secretary, Pinarayi Vijayan, said the battle has become really close during the last few days. Regardless of whether the LDF wins or not, the by-election would see the support base of the UDF, which was so solid as to demolish the LDF in the last Assembly election, crumbling. This would throw up several possibilities in the days to come, he added.

He and other CPI(M) leaders do see the possibility of the BJP shifting a portion of its votes to the UDF. However, at the same time, they sense that there is a sharp divergence of perceptions on the subject among BJP leaders, with the new BJP State president, P. S. Sreedharan Pillai, opposing any bid to sell votes to the Congress. This, the LDF leaders, hope would ensure that there is no serious distortion in the poll outcome.

One minor, though not insignificant, worry of the CPI(M) and LDF is about the symbol of their candidate, which is a TV set. How to imprint the symbol in the minds of voters is a major problem confronting them, particularly because of the lukewarm response of the city dwellers to the poll campaign.

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