The Hindu : Warning signals for Congress

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Wednesday, Oct 01, 2003

Opinion

Opinion - Editorials

Warning signals for Congress

WITH LESS THAN a year to go for the parliamentary polls, the defeat in the two Lok Sabha by-elections in Kerala and Maharashtra should serve as a warning to the Congress. The losses, to the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front in Ernakulam and to the BJP in Solapur, have lessons for the principal Opposition party in the country. While in Kerala, the major concern is dissidence within its ranks, in Maharashtra the biggest problem is discord with its ally, the Nationalist Congress Party. But just as importantly, in both States the anti-incumbency factor could be beginning to tell on the mood of the electorate. It is only two years since the Congress-led United Democratic Front came to power in Kerala, but the faction-ridden Kerala unit of the Congress is already wearing a battle-weary look in the face of a strong challenge from the Left. Some of the difficulties that the Congress high command faces are of the making of the faction led by the former Chief Minister, K. Karunakaran. At times, Mr. Karunakaran flouted party discipline and expected the high command to give in to his demands. But in the present instance, the high command, as also the Chief Minister, A.K. Antony, made a serious miscalculation. The previous time Mr. Karunakaran revolted, in connection with the Rajya Sabha poll in April this year, the high command adopted a cautious approach. Now, for the Lok Sabha by-election, it decided to put the dissident camp's strength to test. The reading apparently was that the veteran enjoyed support only within the party, and not among the voting public. The victory of the LDF candidate, Sebastian Paul, with the overt support of Mr. Karunakaran, by a margin of 22,000 votes suggests that Mr. Karunakaran has a considerable vote base. If it combines with the LDF in any serious way, it can sink the UDF.

In Maharashtra, the result is undoubtedly a setback to Sushil Kumar Shinde who vacated his Solapur Lok Sabha seat on becoming Chief Minister. The NCP to a large extent contributed to the victory of the BJP candidate, Pratapsinh Mohite-Patil, the younger brother of its Minister, Vijaysinh Mohite-Patil. Actually, the NCP Minister, a sugar baron who has the support of several NCP MLAs, ensured that none of the party's top leaders campaigned against his brother. But the Congress too was to blame for the state of the alliance. In the Rajya Sabha poll, the NCP was not taken into confidence when the Congress finalised its candidate. But discord within the alliance cannot explain the big margin of defeat: 1.22 lakh votes. After all, the Congress won the same seat in the 1999 election when the NCP fought separately. The anti-incumbency factor is clearly at work in Maharashtra where the Congress-NCP alliance has been in power for more than four years.

If the Congress can draw any consolation, it is from Karnataka, where it won one Assembly seat, and lost another, mostly due to local factors, to the All India Progressive Janata Dal. In Andhra Pradesh and Orissa too the by-elections went in favour of the parties that had won the seats in the general election. It was very different in Uttarapura in West Bengal where the CPI(M) wrested the seat from Trinamool Congress. This speaks to a situation where the party led by the volatile Mamata Banerjee has been in steady decline and the Opposition is in disarray. With the Congress and the Trinamool Congress pulling in different directions, the Left Front is in a comfortable position in West Bengal. Politically, it is remarkable that there is no whisper of an anti-incumbency factor in a State that has been under continuous Left rule for 26 years now.

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