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The Shia-Sunni equation

Supporters of Muqtada al Sadr stage a show of strength in Sadr city, Baghdad, recently.

THE EXIT of Saddam Hussein's Baathist regime has set off a power struggle among Iraq's two main Muslim sects. The Shias, who form the single largest community in Iraq and constitute 62 per cent of the population, are the chief contenders. Traditionally ruled by the minority Sunnis, the Shias now see a historic opportunity to occupy the political centre stage.

But they have to be overcome three major hurdles. First the ideological debate within the folds of Shiism has to be settled. Leaders like Muqtada al Sadr, who has a mass following in the Shia working class districts of Baghdad, subscribe to the concept of Vilayat-al-Faqih or the rule of the Jurisprudent. This principle was successfully applied by Ayatollah Khomeini to justify rule by clerics in Iran and provided the intellectual basis for the creation of an Islamic state.

Unlike Muqtada al Sadr, the Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, who heads the Hawza or supreme collegium on Shia affairs in Najaf and has a global following, belongs to the "quietist school" that disallows the involvement of senior clerics in politics. Some observers of the internal dynamics among Shias in Iraq are of the view that the followers of the "quietist school" are unlikely to actively resist the rise of Muqtada al Sadr and his followers in the months ahead. Muqtada al Sadr's camp will, however, have to arrive at a political settlement with the Iran-backed Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), which too is well armed with muscle power and weapons.

In Muqtada al Sadr's office in Najaf, his representatives say the Shias and the Sunnis are engaged in a serious dialogue behind the scenes. Muqtada al Sadr, for instance, is in regular touch with Ahmad al Qubasy, a leading Sunni theologian who was once a professor of Islamic studies in Baghdad University but had to seek exile in Dubai during Baathist rule. From a Shia standpoint, the dialogue has to achieve two objectives.

First, rioting between Sunnis and Shias has to be prevented as this could threaten the existence of Iraq as single unified State. Second, the channels of communication have to kept open to coordinate a possible joint Sunni-Shia uprising in case the U.S. blocks the Shia drive for political assertion. Mustapha Yakubi, a spokesman for Muqtada al Sadr, said: "our leaders both Sunni and Shia think that there should be a peaceful solution to problems. Otherwise we have to make a suggestion towards Jihad."

The Shias realise that they can come to power only if they can persuade the Sunnis to accept an important, but junior, role in a new political dispensation. It is unlikely that the Sunnis and the Shias have arrived at a power sharing understanding yet. However, senior leaders from both sides are engaged in a dialogue to keep tensions under check, and to evolve a common strategy to ensure the exit of foreign forces from Iraqi soil.

After six months of U.S. occupation, the Shias are deeply disillusioned. But they still hope Washington will help them assume political ascendancy peacefully. Joint Sunni-Shia efforts to oppose the American occupation has been kept on hold and Shia channels of communication with the U.S. authorities in Iraq have not been closed. But if the Shias, at some point of time, conclude that the U.S. will continue to block their political path, a joint Sunni-Shia uprising cannot be ruled out.

Unlike central and southern Iraq, post-war northern Iraq is evolving very differently. There is a clear realisation among the Kurds, who form the majority ethnic group here, that an independent state of Kurdistan is ruled out, as all the neighbouring countries — Iran, Turkey and Syria — would oppose it.

The Kurds are also aware that they cannot control the oil cities of Kirkuk and Mosul. Turkey still has claims over some northern Iraqi oilfields and the U.S. invasion of Iraq was all about control over oil.

Kurdish leaders are therefore ready to accept a "federal constitution" for Iraq, which also explicitly recognises Iraqi Kurdistan as a distinct geographic entity. Besides, the Kurds are demanding a little over 16 per cent of the Iraqi oil revenues, commensurate with their population.

Atul Aneja

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• A land under siege
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