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CRISIL expects 6.5 p.c. rise in GDP

By Our Special Correspondent

MUMBAI OCT. 13. Credit Rating Information Services of India Ltd. (Crisil) is `cautiously optimistic' on India's GDP and expects it to post a 6.5 per cent growth in the current fiscal, compared to 4.4 per cent growth registered during the previous fiscal.

"There are no signs of major investments coming into the country, even as interest rates are expected to remain steady, while infrastructure will be one of the major bottlenecks during the fiscal,'' Crisil Executive Director and Chief Rating Officer, Roopa Kudva, told reporters here today.

The rating agency expects agriculture segment to post a robust 7.5 per cent, compared to the -3.3 per cent registered during last fiscal, and industry to post a lower growth rate of 5 to 5.25 per cent, as against the 6 per cent posted a year ago, she said.

Crisil expects the service sector to grow at 7 per cent in this fiscal, in line with that posted during the previous fiscal, she said.

The GDP was driven mainly by exports during the previous fiscal and a rupee depreciation had also supplemented to this, Mr. Kudva said adding, "the GDP growth doesn't seem to move to higher levels this year.'' — PTI

ICRA too sees higher growth

NEW DELHI OCT. 13. Following the Union Finance Ministry's projection of a 7 per cent growth this fiscal, the Investment and Credit Rating Agency (ICRA) too has hiked its growth projection to 6.9 per cent for 2003-04. It is again the agriculture sector which is expected to prop up the gross domestic product (GDP).

After the widespread drought last year, agriculture this time is expected to stage a strong recovery because of the plentiful rains and is estimated to clock a nine per cent growth.

The non-agricultural sectors are expected to grow by 6.4 per cent, of which industry would be around 5.8 per cent and services by 6.7 per cent, both somewhat slower than what they achieved in 2002-03.

The main reasons for this are depressed growth in the mining and electricity sectors; a tempering of the rate of growth of exports from last year's 22 per cent to somewhere below 10 per cent and base period effects as the year-on-year measurement begins to be computed on a higher level of industrial and services output.

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