The Hindu : Early elections & TDP calculations

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Saturday, Nov 08, 2003

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Early elections & TDP calculations

By Jyotirmaya Sharma

Chandrababu Naidu's main strength remains the lack of cohesion within the Congress, which is the main opposition in Andhra Pradesh.

Early elections in Andhra Pradesh are a foregone conclusion. Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu is expected to recommend dissolution of the State Legislative Assembly by November 15. The reason for bringing forward elections in the State by nearly ten months is seen by many as an attempt to capitalise on the sympathy generated for Naidu after the assassination attempt he miraculously survived at Tirupati in October. The constant harping on the `sympathy' factor is a classic example of ambiguity in using existing political metaphors.

Mr. Naidu's survival in the claymore mine attack has transformed him into an object of awe and admiration rather than sympathy. In the eyes of Telugu Desam Party spin-doctors, Mr. Naidu is to be projected as a combination of Superman and James Bond rolled into one, an individual with an inexhaustible will to power and life. The attempt is to portray him a strong, invincible and determined leader. They speak of a transformation in him after the attack, but one that is channeled towards greater resolve in accomplishing his agenda, coupled with less tolerance for inefficiency and corruption. Sympathy, then, is an emotion more appropriate for martyrs, not for a hero who is mrityunjaya or conqueror of death.

Mr. Naidu himself spoke about his punarjanma or rebirth after surviving the blasts. Apart from literal connotations, his survival is also his political rebirth. In one deft stroke, TDP strategists argue, the incident brought down any anti-incumbency feeling that might have existed before. Till September, Mr. Naidu had to contend with an average monsoon, a worsening power supply situation, suicide by farmers and weavers, high court strictures against a Minister and several scams involving TDP leaders. These problems would have got further magnified during the run up to Assembly elections, which were due in late 2004. The unpredictability of the next monsoon could have added to his woes. In other words, things could get significantly worse.

Apart from the recently acquired halo, Mr. Naidu's main strength remains the lack of cohesion within the Congress, which is the main opposition in the State. Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy's much-publicised padayatra last summer only managed to unite all factions in the Congress against him. Despite ongoing bus rides by all faction leaders, no one really believes that the Congress is capable of putting up a united fight against Mr. Naidu. The TDP is bound to highlight the faction fights within the Congress while calling attention to the absence of a clear chief ministerial candidate in that camp.

One party that could have given Mr. Naidu sleepless nights was the Telangana Rashtra Samiti. The results of the panchayat elections last year and the zilla parishad elections this year were pointers towards the TRS's growing popularity in the Telangana region. Mr. Naidu will now seek to blunt the TRS's impact by implicitly painting Naxal violence and demands for a separate Telangana state with the same brush. The Congress could have benefited from an alliance with the TRS, thereby preventing a division in votes in Telangana. Any three-cornered contest in that region will ultimately be the TDP's gain. As of now, a Congress-TRS alliance seems a remote possibility. Mr. Naidu also expects the rhetoric of its ally, the Bharatiya Janata Party, to get shriller closer to the general elections next year. Early Assembly polls will help him distance himself from too close an identification with the BJP while being able to retain a measure of popularity among the minorities in the State.

The Chief Minister will go to the people for a fresh mandate with four clearly defined strategies. The first will be to portray himself as a tough, tireless and determined leader who has challenged death and proved victorious. As an extension of the idea, he will project himself as someone who is capable of taking on more mundane, this-worldly issues of economic growth and development and emerge triumphant. A second theme presented to the electorate will be a choice between violence and development. According to TDP strategists, this is a strategy that can hardly evoke any opposition; it will neutralise any ammunition that the Congress might use against him. Having created a binary opposition between support for violence and development, Mr. Naidu will project his achievements of the last eight years. In the eyes of the corporate sector, he has been synonymous with a visionary agenda for economic reforms. This, along with other less successful schemes for the rural sector, will be highlighted as instances of good intent that require continuity. The fourth element in the campaign will be to generate optimism for the future. This has been an important feature of Mr. Naidu's political strategy and he is bound to bank on its efficacy once again.

Two months are a long time in Indian politics. Despite several advantages, Mr. Naidu will have to contend with growing dissatisfaction among party cadres with several sitting MLAs. The situation in a TDP stronghold like East Godavari, for instance, is especially critical. If he wants to maintain his primacy in this region, he might have to replace almost all the present incumbents. In other words, he will have to take tough decisions on cleaning up his party at all levels.

If the Congress loses a third time in a row, it might not be churlish to write its political obituary in Andhra Pradesh. For sheer survival, it needs to end factionalism and emerge with a real alternative agenda for the State. There are few indications at the present moment of the Congress putting its house in order. Senior TDP leaders claim the party will win a comfortable majority in the 294-member State Assembly. The joke, possibly inspired by the ruling party, doing the rounds in Hyderabad is that God is a primary member of the TDP. Nothing in the last eight years has persuaded the Almighty to shift allegiance, though his moods are scarcely predictable.

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