The Hindu : The Japanese verdict

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Thursday, Nov 13, 2003

Opinion

Opinion - Editorials

The Japanese verdict

FOR A COUNTRY where the two-party system was not even a dream for half a century, Sunday's parliamentary election result in Japan had one clear message. It announced the arrival of an opposition party that can offer an alternative to the Liberal Democratic Party. The LDP-led coalition, which has been ruling the country almost uninterruptedly for five decades, secured a fresh mandate but saw its majority reduced. Gaining at the ruling combine's expense was the Democratic Party of Japan, a five-year-old alliance of splinter groups of the LDP and socialists of the Liberal Party that has been taking a centrist line on key policy issues. The LDP, headed by the mercurial Prime Minister, Junichiro Koizumi, lost its independent majority in the lower house, securing 237 of the 480 seats, though the coalition led by it managed to retain power with an overall majority of 275 seats. The Democratic Party won 177 seats, a substantial increase of 40. It is unlikely that the election verdict will cast a shadow on Mr. Koizumi's administration in the immediate term. However, the country's political life can be expected to turn livelier, particularly in the context of the key political and economic decisions that will need to be taken in the next few months.

It was for the first time in post-war Japan that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party faced a robust challenge from the opposition on a range of issues — from the economy to Tokyo's announced support for the U.S.-led occupation of Iraq. As the first real opposition, the Democratic Party raised expectations among voters dissatisfied with the virtual one-party system. It was also the first time that the electorate was passing judgment on Mr. Koizumi's economic and political reforms. He had overwhelmed anti-reformist, conservative elements within his own party two months ago, describing his victory at that time as a "major turning point" and vowing to put an end to the politics of "shadow shoguns". A big enough margin would have helped him pursue his agenda with renewed vigour. The reduced strength of his party and of the ruling alliance and the emergence of the opposition Democratic Party as a dynamic force must be seen as a setback for him. The powerful faction leaders he took on and ousted in the party election can be expected to try and make a comeback.

As the post-election domestic battles begin, Mr. Koizumi will face a stronger opposition to his decision to send non-combat soldiers to occupied Iraq. His support for the U.S. `war on terror' and Japan's pledge of cash and troops to help rebuild Iraq did not become a major issue during the election campaign despite the Democratic Party's portrayal of the Prime Minister as Washington's lackey. But popular opposition to the decision will gain strength in the wake of the Democratic Party's showing, reviving now dormant but once violently active anti-Americanism. Under the 61-year-old Prime Minister, there has been a distinct rise in the profile of Japan on the international scene. This will get a boost if the LDP presses ahead with its plan to amend Japan's pacifist constitution to acknowledge the existence of its powerful military, a move until recently regarded as taboo. As Tokyo prepares to shoulder greater global responsibilities, with a prospective seat as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, there are nagging worries for the country from the regional situation. Much depends on how maturely and soberly the Koizumi Government handles relations with North Korea against the backdrop of the latter's turbulent relations with the United States on its nuclear programme.

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