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The Shukla factor in Chhattisgarh

By V. Krishna Ananth

BILASPUR Nov. 19. There were times when the veteran Congress leader, Vidya Charan Shukla, could swing the politics in Madhya Pradesh the way he wanted. Vidya `bhaiya' as he is known in Chhattisgarh was the most sought after leader and candidates could rest assured of a victory in an election as long as they had his blessing.

When Mr. Shukla left the Congress to join V.P. Singh's Janata Dal he could carry with him a large following. So much so, that the Congress lost heavily in the Chhattisgarh region — then part of Madhya Pradesh — in the 1990 elections to the State Assembly. The Congress reverses helped the BJP form its government in the State.

All this, however, is a thing of the past. Mr. Shukla is now the face of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) in Chhattisgarh. He returned to the Congress in 1991 and gained a hold over the party in the Narasimha Rao era. But he ran out of luck again and lost out in the race when the Congress high command chose Digvijay Singh as Chief Minister in 1993.

This development, in spite of the Congress' impressive score in that election in Chhattisgarh (the party won 51 out of the 90 Assembly seats from here), led the Shukla loyalists in the Legislature to desert him.

After Sonia Gandhi anointed Ajit Jogi as the Chief Minister when Chhattisgarh was declared a separate State, Mr. Shukla was left on the margins of the political discourse. His strength, after all, derived from the clout he enjoyed with the high command and as this began to weaken, his followers rallied behind Mr. Jogi.

Mr. Shukla, however, has mustered support across the State and the NCP has fielded candidates in all the 90 constituencies in Chhattisgarh. Mr. Shukla has obliged many of those who failed to get the Congress ticket.

Mr. Shukla and several of his followers wield considerable influence in their areas. Votes of their followers should have gone into the Congress kitty in the normal course. This could mean bad news for the Congress.

While Mr. Jogi, with his identity as a local and his ``resources'' has infused a sense of ``purpose'' and determination among the youth and rallied them behind the Congress, the presence of the NCP could end up spoiling the Congress.

This impression gains further ground for another reason too. There are strong undercurrents that suggest possible ``deals''. And that is about how the NCP's nominees would behave as the campaigning comes to a close. ``It is possible that the NCP will withdraw in favour of the BJP here,'' says Ajay Kaushik of Bilha, a traditional supporter of the Congress. He feels that the NCP nominee from his constituency is there only because he is influential in about half a dozen villages. He could end up trading away this support to anyone.

In a region where the village `sarpanch' determines the way its people vote, such ``deals'' can play a crucial role. Mr. Shukla wields a lot of influence among the `sarpanchs' thanks to the largesse he gave them in the form of civil contracts and such other works when he was the only leader of ``stature'' from the Chhattisgarh region who could dictate terms to the Congress leaders in Bhopal and in New Delhi. The industrial hub that Bilaspur division has, provided Mr. Shukla scope to act as the intermediary with the political establishment in Bhopal and Delhi over the years. All this has helped him become ``resourceful''.

There is also a strong undercurrent that Mr. Shukla himself could end up negotiating with the BJP and ensuring that the NCP nominees retire from contest. The NCP in Chhattisgarh, after all, came into existence only in order to help Mr. Shukla settle scores with Mr. Jogi's Congress.

A cross section of the voters here also feel that Mr. Jogi too could negotiate with the NCP's nominees directly and get them to retire in favour of the Congress candidates.

As of now, the BJP seems to have an edge over the Congress in Bilaspur and the surrounding areas. It could mean the party retaining its seats and even wresting a couple of more from the Congress.

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