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Hardliners may gain in Ulster poll

By Hasan Suroor

LONDON NOV. 26. The twice-postponed elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly were being held today amid a strong possibility of moderate groups on both sides of the sectarian divide losing ground.

If that were to happen the peace process, already stalled over the Unionists' insistence on IRA giving up its weapons, could be in real trouble.

All eyes were on David Trimble's Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) as it faced a tough challenge from the hard-line Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) which is opposed to the historic 1998 Good Friday Agreement that ushered in the peace process.

On the Republican side, Sinn Fein was expected to beat the more moderate Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) to emerge as the largest Republican group in the Assembly.

In the event of the DUP and Sinn Fein emerging as the principal Unionist and Republican parties, respectively, there could be a political deadlock as the DUP has ruled out forming a government with Sinn Fein.

Rules require the largest Unionist and Republican groups to share power in order to provide representation to both communities in the government.

If one of them refuses there will be no government rendering the entire election process futile. Commentators said that even if the DUP agreed to work with Sinn Fein, their tense relationship would make the new government more unstable than the previous ones, led by the UUP and Sinn Fein.

Over one million people were set to vote but a low turn-out was feared because of threat of violence by paramilitary groups opposed to the peace process. Widespread disillusionment with the main political parties was also likely to keep voters indoors.

Both British and Irish Governments were keen on a large turnout as low polling was expected to favour the hard-line groups.

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