Sunday, Nov 30, 2003
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It gives 105 to 115 out of 200 seats to the BJP and 70 to 80 seats for the Congress and 10 to 20 for others.
The BJP has a lead of over eight per cent votes with 44.7 per cent vote share, while the Congress is expected to poll 36.2 per cent. Other smaller parties and independents will poll over 19.1 per cent.
The RDI conducted a comprehensive opinion poll in 50 Assembly segments of Rajasthan between November 24 and 28.
A representative sample of 200-registered vote was taken from each of the 50 constituencies covered in the survey, it said.
The choice of candidates and high-pitch campaign by the BJP had turned the odds in its favour.
On the one hand, the Congress had over 80 rebel candidates while the BJP had just over 30. Thus the split of votes by the rebel candidates would certainly harm the Congress more than the BJP, it said.
Besides rebels, the main reason for the BJP's likely historical performance is the drastic change in the voting pattern of different caste groups and the most significant of them is division of Jat votes. PTI
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