Sunday, Nov 30, 2003
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By Harish Khare
In this massive exercise, the electorate will cast their votes in 1,02,056 polling stations, manned by five and a half lakh electoral staff, under the protection of over four lakh security personnel, including 385 companies of the Central forces. About 20,000 polling stations have been designated as "sensitive." The outcome would determine substantially the content and style of the next Lok Sabha elections, due in September 2004. The contest is primarily between the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party. For the Congress, it is essentially a win-win situation, even if the party manages to win three out of the four States. For the BJP, it is a difficult call even if it is able to storm its way back to power in two out of the four States. After it received a resounding drubbing in the February 2003 Himachal Pradesh poll, the BJP leadership had proposed an "anti-incumbency" doctrine and suggested that the party would do well in the four Assembly polls in the north. If the Congress splits the four States, it can claim to have bucked the anti-incumbency trend and the BJP will suffer a moral setback.
Showcasing Vajpayee
These fours States have seen a mismatch of resources — organisational, financial and talent — between the two parties. The BJP's strategy has been to showcase the Vajpayee Government's "achievements" against those of the State Governments. But the party appears to have clearly outspent the Congress. The role of big money was never so central to an election contest. Minutes before campaigning ended, the Prime Minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, addressed a reasonably-attended election rally for the BJP in New Delhi. He was persuaded to pitch in with an appearance in a last-minute effort to retrieve the sagging electoral fortunes of his party, in the Capital, almost like Javed Miandad hitting Chetan Sharma for a six off the last ball of the India-Pakistan final in Sharjah in 1986. Whether Mr. Vajpayee has managed to do a Miandad and improve dramatically the BJP's electoral prospects would not be known for a few days. For now, a number of pre-poll surveys have predicted that the Congress should be able to retain its majority in the Delhi Assembly. Much against his inclination, Mr. Vajpayee donned the partisan cap, especially when it came to defending the indefensible in the Dilip Singh Judev affair in Chhattisgarh. Unwittingly, it seems, he has put to test his vote-catching abilities in a contest in which he is not the primary contender.By contrast, the Congress has witnessed a new trend. Unlike in the past when the party high command insisted on being the sole vote-catcher, the Congress campaign this time was centred round the four Chief Ministers. In Delhi, it is Sheila Dikshit against Madanlal Khurana; in Madhya Pradesh, the contest has come down to Digvijay Singh versus everybody else; in Rajasthan, it is an Ashok Ghelot versus Vasundhara Raje battle; and, in Chhattisgarh, it is Ajit Jogi (and his son) versus the Central Government. Nowhere have votes been sought in the name of the Congress president, Sonia Gandhi, though she did go through a rigorous election-meeting schedule. Should the Congress do well (winning at least two out of the four States), its internal dynamics would stand redefined. Of the four States, the most crucial battle is being fought in Madhya Pradesh, where Digvijay Singh has been left to fend for himself against the onslaught of the BJP-Sangh Parivar forces. Except Ms. Gandhi, the entire Congress appears to have abandoned Mr. Singh to his own arguments and strategies. He finds himself trapped, almost like Abhimanyu, in the battlefield. In any case, the outcome of the Madhya Pradesh contest will determine the fate of the so far politically correct "democratic decentralisation." Until a few months ago, everybody appeared to be praising Mr. Singh for the progress in Madhya Pradesh in terms of "social indicators." The BJP has revised the terms of the debate. In its propaganda, Mr. Singh has been derided as an "NGO Chief Minister." Win or lose, his fate will be watched closely by other Chief Ministers.
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