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Kerala
By Girish Menon
Conventionally, winning a by-election is a difficult task for any ruling combination in Kerala. A by-election, close on the heels of a defeat in the Ernakulam Lok Sabha election and the consequent disarray has made matters more difficult for the UDF. There are several reasons why the Thiruvalla by-election is important to the UDF. The outcome would decide the Congress road map, which indicates that the ride is going to be rocky and bumpy. For the first time in the last two decades, the relations between the rival factions in the Congress have touched the abysmal levels. The division in the Congress ranks is total and it is because of the UDF partners the Karunakaran and Antony factions continue to live under one umbrella. The division, as the recent statements of leaders show, is fundamental and not merely related to personality clash. In the Ernakulam by-election, Mr. Karunakaran successfully played the minority card to ensure the defeat of the Congress candidate, M.O. John. The seat was lost because large sections of the Muslim community voted against the Congress candidate (the Chief Minister's candidate in Mr. Karunakaran's words). A UDF defeat in Thiruvalla, Mr. Karunakaran hopes, would strengthen his demand for a leadership change and vindicate his position that it is not only the Muslim community that is against the Antony rule, but large sections of the Christian denominations in the constituency as well. Mr. Karunakaran and his supporters have spared no effort to ensure the UDF candidate, Elizabeth Mammen's defeat. A victory would help Mr. Antony retrieve the political advantage he lost in the Ernakulam by-election and save his chief ministership. The Antony faction has succeeded in its campaign against Mr. Karunakaran, accusing him of trying to split the party and ally with its arch enemy, the CPI(M), with Karunakaran MLAs disassociating themselves one by one from his political search for an alliance with the CPI(M )-led LDF. The conflict between the Orthodox and Patriarch factions of the Malankara Church would cast its shadow on the by-election. Though the UDF campaign managers and the Kerala Congress(M) leader, K.M. Mani, claim that they have sorted out the existing problems, it has been a tightrope walk for the ruling coalition during electioneering. However, there are conflicting reports about the respective positions of these two denominations, which have solid votes in the constituency. For Mr. Mani, winning Thiruvalla is very important, as it would enable him to retain the denomination balance his party has been assiduously maintaining in central Travancore politics. A win in Thiruvalla would ensure the continuity in representation for the Mar Thoma Community, which has stood by the UDF. If Ms. Mammen wins, she would be the sole representative of this community in the UDF. Basically a marginal constituency for the UDF, Thiruvalla has stood with the UDF during the best of times. Its electorate has not hesitated to punish the UDF during the worst of times. The UDF is indeed going through a bad patch and the Thiruvalla voters would decide what the future beholds for the coalition.
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