The Hindu : Waiting game in Kerala

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Monday, Dec 01, 2003

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Waiting game in Kerala

WHILE THE CRISIS is far from over for the A.K. Antony Government in Kerala, the Congress faction led by the former Chief Minister, K. Karunakaran, seems to have lost momentum in its toppling game. Mr. Karunakaran's plan of action involved meeting the Governor, Sikander Bakht, on November 28 with a list establishing the support of 34 members of the Legislative Assembly, including some from Congress allies in the ruling United Democratic Front. With backing from 40 MLAs of the Opposition Left Democratic Front, this was going to deliver the required strength in the 140-member State Assembly to form an alternative government. Quite understandably, the allies of the Congress, the Kerala Congress (B) led by R. Balakrishna Pillai and the Kerala Congress (Jacob) led by T.M. Jacob, who have been with Mr. Karunakaran up to this point, seem to have developed cold feet. The two parties have a lot at stake in the present UDF Government led by Mr. Antony. Unless they are confident of wielding a greater influence in an alternative government, the two Ministers are not going to jump ship. By contrast, the man who has been Chief Minister of the State four times has little to lose and everything to gain by going ahead with the toppling game. As his camp lacks the enthusiasm for adventurously pressing ahead now, he has called off his scheduled meeting with the Governor, citing health reasons of course.

Now the pressure is on Mr. Karunakaran not to precipitate matters, but instead wait for the intervention of the party's high command. The national leadership of the Congress had made it clear that the Kerala issue would receive attention only after the conclusion of the major round of Assembly elections covering five States. Evidently, the All India Congress Committee did not want to be seen as bowing to factional pressures in the run-up to these polls. Not surprisingly, the veteran's response to this stance was that he would not wait till December 1 for a resolution of the crisis. Now the consensus in his camp seems to be: allow the national leadership to take stock of the situation and effect a compromise. The old factional warrior is clearly not one to prevaricate: delay, he knows, only favours the younger rival he detests. For the interim, he may have no choice but to mark time. But going by past experience, the high command is unlikely readily to agree to jettison Mr. Antony. When that is confirmed, Mr. Karunakaran will have to exercise one of two options: use his numbers to step up pressure on the high command to rule in his favour or try and build resentment against the high command. He may even try to do both. All that his rival can hope for is breathing space — rather than any sense of stability.

The principled stand taken by the Left Democratic Front that the Indian Union Muslim League will not be part of an alternative government undermined the toppling game. This stand of the LDF is a continuation of its policy not to ally with communal parties. Mr. Karunakaran, who was wooing the IUML as well as other allies of the Congress as part of his one-point programme, thus found his room for manoeuvre reduced. The LDF has also called for a new dispensation — not just the replacement of one regime with another pursuing the same policies. With "wait-and-watch" being the watchword of all the major players, Kerala will not see any regime change for at least a while yet. That is relative stability for the course.

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