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A silent transformation

The undercurrent against the incumbent Congress Government went unnoticed in Chhattisgarh, says Aarti Dhar.

THE VERDICT in Chhattisgarh was perhaps the biggest surprise for both the Congress and the BJP. While the Congress had hoped for an absolute majority, the BJP was ready at the most to put up a tough fight for a hung Assembly. The undercurrent against the incumbent Government went unnoticed.

What has come as a jolt to the outgoing Chief Minister, Ajit Jogi, is the Congress' rout in the tribal districts, making it clear that the `caste card' played by the party was not acceptable to the people. Mr. Jogi's confidence of winning over 70 seats was based on the caste calculation of his `coterie'.

The voting pattern was obviously different with the BJP winning 26 reserved tribal seats out of a total of 34. Of these, 20 tribal seats had been with the Congress. Not willing to admit this, Mr. Jogi says the Congress lost because the naxalite-affected areas voted against it.

Development was never an issue in Chhattisgarh. Its good roads, abundant power supply and unlimited potential for industrialisation are well known. Unfortunately, these were overshadowed by complaints about Mr. Jogi's autocratic attitude, centralisation of power and his son's interference in the Government's day-to-day functioning. Failure to foresee the extent of damage that the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) could cause was another factor that spelt doom for the Congress.

Mr. Jogi's leadership is now under a cloud. It is felt in Congress circles that had he not been projected as Chief Minister, the outcome might have been different. But if Mr. Jogi is recalled to Delhi, the Congress will have a difficult time choosing a leader from among a dozen contenders.

Crumbling under the weight of defections and internecine wars, the BJP got a new lease of life under Raman Singh, chosen by the party national president, Venkaiah Naidu. An RSS man, Mr. Singh was asked to quit his ministerial berth at the Centre when the BJP had virtually been wiped out in Chhattisgarh. Mr. Singh mobilised the cadres at the grassroots level and brought the rebels back into the party fold.

His campaign was so meticulously planned that the Congress did not even realise what it was up against. He has now emerged as the strongest BJP leader in the State who has the blessings of the Prime Minister and the party president.

The NCP factor, too, helped the BJP consolidate its position. The party that hoped to emerge as the third force did not do well for itself in terms of seats but it certainly damaged the Congress in at least 30 constituencies, a majority of which are in the tribal belt. Had these 30 seats fallen into the Congress kitty, its score would have gone up to 67 from the present 37. It now appears that the Shukla family era has ended. The NCP could not win a single seat in Mahasamund district, the traditional bastion of the Shukla brothers — V.C. Shukla and S.C. Shukla. The latter's son, Amitesh, also lost from his father's traditional constituency.

The proverbial last nail in the Congress coffin was the Dilip Singh Judev episode that turned the tide in favour of the BJP. For some strange reason, the voters were not only willing to condone the erstwhile `kumar sahib' for allegedly accepting a bribe but also believed that it was a conspiracy hatched by Mr. Jogi and his son. The Congress that had hoped to benefit from the episode was at the receiving end and there was a total reversal of the voting pattern.

Now, that there is a `feel-good' factor in favour of the BJP, it can expect to make gains in the four tribal-dominated Lok Sabha seats from where it has gained the maximum in the Assembly elections. The voters in at least four of the five general seats have already favoured the BJP. The only two seats where the party could face a tough competition are those reserved for Scheduled Castes where the bulk of the Assembly segments have gone to the Congress.

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Stories in this Section

• After the vote
• Caste calculus gone awry
• Positive vote for governance
• A silent transformation
• To advance or not to advance general election
• Bumpy roads overturn Digvijay

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