The Hindu : After the vote

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Sunday, Dec 07, 2003

Opinion

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After the vote

Is the country ready for a new grammar of political contestation in which the political parties are judged by the voters for their record/promise of delivering on basic issues, asks Harish Khare.

THE VOTES have been counted. Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan are going to have new Chief Ministers and new ruling parties. Delhi opted to renew faith in Sheila Dikshit and her Congress party. The winners are permitting themselves a bit of crowing in the full glare of the klieg lights, and the losers are being left alone to lick their wounds. Recriminations and commendations are aplenty. Naturally. But after a few more days of excitement and despondency, the political parties would have to start preparing themselves for the next big battle: the 2004 Lok Sabha election.

The all too logical question that needs to be answered is: what do these election results reveal about the nation's political mood? Were these four elections different, each with its own dynamics, each having its heroes and anti-heroes, each host to historic animosities and memories, and each with its own mismatch of resources? Or were these four States witnessing variations of one grand theme? Do we need to see four different failures or one overarching success? These four States account for 76 Lok Sabha seats and, according to one calculation, of these, the BJP "won" as many as 66, leaving only seven for the Congress.

Before the votes got counted, the BJP leaders were keen on denying that the Assembly elections would in any way be a referendum on the Vajpayee Government. L.K. Advani, who is now being serenaded as a grand strategist, was in the forefront of those BJP members who were asserting that the votes in the four States would have no bearing on the Centre. Today the same crowd is enthusiastically claiming that it was a vote for the Vajpayee Government's economic reforms-centred "development" plank. It need only be recalled that in the run-up to the elections these very leaders were giving in to the "populist" managers and were postponing one "tough" decision after another.

On the other hand, the Congress had been showcasing its Chief Ministers as model practitioners of "good governance", administrators who would not be distracted by unproductive "emotional" issues such as Ayodhya, Ram Mandir or Bhojshala. The Congress campaign hinged primarily on converting its Chief Ministers' public profiles into assets for the party. The strategy obviously did not work because the Congress lacked the organisational imagination and resourcefulness to sell its strong points.

Is the country, then, ready for a new grammar of political contestation in which the political parties are judged by the voters for their record/promise of delivering on basic issues? In Gujarat, the BJP's argument was that the paramount concern ought to be "security"; in Himachal Pradesh, it talked of "development" and how it was the Prime Minister's "favourite" State, but the argument did not click. In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP can claim credit for tapping the public mood against the Digvijay Singh regime's flawed "development" policies but in neighbouring Chhattisgarh, the resentment against the Ajit Jogi Government had little to do with (lack of) "development". Even in Rajasthan, as Chief Minister, Ashok Gehlot presided over one of the best administrations, diligently delivering relief during the first four years of drought. It would be incorrect, therefore, to suggest that the BJP won in Rajasthan or Chhattisgarh on a "development" plank. And, of course, the "development" argument did not work in Delhi, right under the very nose of the Central Government.

Still, somehow the Vajpayee establishment has decided to see in the vote a reaffirmation of its own policies and priorities. Soon after the votes were counted, the Prime Minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, was the first to pointedly note that the BJP had not raised the Mandir/Masjid issues so dear to the Hindutva crowd. In the closing days of the campaign, the BJP unveiled an impressive electronic offensive, featuring Mr. Vajpayee who pitted his own credibility to ask the voters to choose between (incumbent) "non-performers" and the promise of those who would work in sync with him at the Centre. The received wisdom is that the Vajpayee Line is working. And this "line" is popular and fetches votes. It was no coincidence that as soon as the voting in the four States was over, the "Shining India" campaign was resumed.

Now that the Vajpayee establishment has appropriated this "victory", it is to be expected that the Prime Minister may feel a little more confident in pushing his search for peace with Pakistan as well as for reconciliation in Kashmir. He may also feel emboldened enough to put the Vishwa Hindu Parishad in its place, thereby starting the process of reconciliation between the BJP and the minorities.

The Congress is shell-shocked. It is almost like discovering that Virendra Sehwag, Rahul Dravid and Sourav Ganguly cannot score while the star batsman, Sachin Tendulkar (Sonia Gandhi) is already back in the pavilion. It is quite likely to give in to panic, and apportion the blame for defeat on to the three defeated Chief Ministers. Given the prevailing culture of intrigue and sycophancy, the collective inclination would be to draw the wagons around Ms. Gandhi. Digvijay Singh has already set the tone by proclaiming that as "an ordinary worker", it would be his endeavour to strengthen Ms. Gandhi's leadership. Ajit Jogi has already redefined the sycophancy book. Mr. Gehlot would also be forced to join the chorus. This preoccupation with a reaffirmation of the Sonia Gandhi leadership would only delay the Congress' discovery of a changed India.

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