The Hindu : To advance or not to advance general election

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Sunday, Dec 07, 2003

Opinion

Opinion - News Analysis

To advance or not to advance general election

By K.K. Katyal

NEW DELHI DEC. 5. Towards the end of 1970, the air was thick with speculation over an early general election. The Prime Minister of the day, Indira Gandhi, strongly denied that she planned premature dissolution of the Lok Sabha. Atal Bihari Vajpayee, then the leader of the Jana Sangh, was not convinced. "Mrs. Gandhi," he said, "has come out with denials. What other proof is needed to show that the mid-term poll is round the corner." He proved right.

The general election was held nearly one year ahead of schedule — in March 1971. Her gamble paid off. She returned with a bigger majority than that of 1967.

The purpose in recalling this episode is not to establish a parallel between that case and the present situation but to suggest that denials need to be taken with a pinch of salt. On the strength of circumstantial evidence, it is safe to assume that the BJP leadership is yet to seriously apply itself to this issue and that the stage when it makes up its mind is yet to be reached. The conjectures over advancing the general election, that had been rife for months, received a fillip after the BJP's unexpected, astounding victory in the Assembly polls. The party top brass met briefly on Thursday afternoon, just before the Prime Minister's departure for Nigeria, to "review" the emerging political situation. They did not consider the issue at that hurried get-together. They could not have. The non-consideration of the subject is not to be interpreted as rejection of the idea. The denials were obviously meant to prevent the build-up of the hype which could harm the party in case it were to decide not to go in for the gamble.

The arguments and factors for and against an early election are clear by now. Those supporting this course of action cite 1) the favourable climate, generated by the feel-good factor (it has become a cliché because of excessive repetition), resulting from the upswing in the economy, in the wake of a good monsoon, with inflation under control, bright prospects for increased agricultural and industrial production and reasonably good showing in the management of foreign affairs, 2) the ever-rising popularity rating of Mr. Vajpayee, who is to lead the party at the hustings, 3) demoralisation and confusion in the camp of the main adversary, the Congress, and 4) the successful experiment with the management of the poll campaign by the younger set of leaders — Arun Jaitley in Madhya Pradesh and Pramod Mahajan in Rajasthan. Then there is the calculation that an advanced poll would catch the Opposition off-guard. And, last but not the least is the belief that the party's impressive showing in the Assembly contests has generated a momentum which needs to be exploited before it slows down or before a bad monsoon washes off the advantages accruing from good rains this year.

Those wanting the general election to be held as scheduled — by the first week of October next year — draw attention to the political picture in its totality. Firstly, the resounding BJP victory in one part of the Hindi heartland should not be allowed to obscure the plight of the party in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, which account for a big chunk of the Lok Sabha seats. Second, the logic of the BJP's performance in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh may not prevail in other parts of the country such as the CPI(M)-ruled West Bengal or the AIADMK-ruled Tamil Nadu. Third, there is no improvement in the employment situation with the ranks of the jobless swelling with every passing month.

The top Government leaders are not sure whether the Election Commission, led by Mr. Lyngdoh, would oblige them and agree to an early Lok Sabha poll. Only recently, the Commission did not respond favourably to the Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister, Chandrababu Naidu's plea for early Assembly elections — by February next year — on the ground that preparatory work, like the revision of the electoral lists, could not be completed by then. If the Commission was not prepared to advance the poll in one State because of practical problems, it could not be expected to agree to an early election in the entire country.

The Government leaders had been aware — not necessarily to their liking — of the "independence" shown by Mr. Lyngdoh in poll-related matters. As one party senior noted, the Election Commission had chosen not to disclose to the Government the dates of the Assembly poll before the public announcement, even though this information was needed to fix the schedule of the winter session of Parliament. Mr. Lyngdoh is due to retire in February next year. Any dissolution of the Lok Sabha till then was, thus, out of question.

Were the Assembly elections a referendum on the performance of the top leaders of the two main parties — Mr. Vajpayee and Sonia Gandhi? The attitudes in party camps to this question differed before and after the poll. During the campaigning, each of the two sides was wary of linking the leaders to the outcome. That was because the verdict was widely expected to be mixed — only partly favourable to each party — and the campaigners did not want their leaders to be associated with the unfavourable part. Later, it was a different story. The BJP lost no time in proclaiming that the victories represented the people's verdict on Mr. Vajpayee. On the other hand, the Congress camp sought to distance Ms. Gandhi from the humiliating performance of the party, saying that she did succeed in generating favourable sentiment but the election managers failed to convert it into votes. Not a convincing explanation but there it was.

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