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Kerala
By George Jacob
Almost all the parameters had gone against the UDF in the byelection: the Congress remained truncated and the Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC) president, K. Muraleedharan, himself campaigned against the UDF candidate; at least two of the coalition partners, the Kerala Congress (Jacob) and Kerala Congress (B), remained silent, if not worked at cross- purposes; the sentiment against the State Government was high among the managers of the minority vote banks and this was especially pronounced at Thiruvalla on account of the firm stand taken by the Chief Minister, A.K. Antony, on the professional colleges issue. Above all, the ruffled sentiments of non-resident Keralties following the reported statement by the Chief Minister had the potential to play havoc with the UDF election strategists at Thiruvalla. The only open supporter in this otherwise lonely battle was the Nair Service Society (NSS), which through its words and deeds made it clear that it was not in support of those who wanted to defeat the present dispensation. In spite of all these disadvantages, it appears that Mr. Mani could thwart all attempts by the LDF campaign managers to raise the combat to a political plane thereby insulating it from all the disturbances outside the constituency. And in the last few days of the campaign, he even succeeded, with the help of Mr. Antony, in marginalising the LDF in the campaigns, by placing the senior Congress leader, K. Karunakaran, in the opponent's slot, ultimately giving this much-needed victory to the UDF on a platter. However, in politics, especially in coalition politics, there are no free lunches and Mr. Mani knows this best. With a weak and divided Congress leadership at the helm and the whiff of an impending Parliament election round the corner, the time is ripe to set the ball rolling on implementing the Kerala Congress(M) agenda, extracting every pound of flesh in the process. He has already expressed his dissatisfaction over the protracted factional war in the Congress and the failure of the leadership to find an amicable settlement. In the coming days, it is not unlikely that the Kerala Congress (M) would come to the conclusion that the conflict in the Congress had started affecting the administration and the development process of the State and as such it was time to take the issue out of the Congress realm. It may be possible that Mr. Mani would take a more dominant role in settling the impasse in the UDF and the administration. After the victory at Thiruvalla, Mr. Mani can function from a position of strength, his followers point out. However, top on Mr. Mani's agenda could be the creation of the `new order' in the Kerala Congress. In this regard, the impact on the other two factions in the UDF and Kerala Congress (Joseph), now with the LDF, could be direct. In other words, the electorate in the State is going to witness another bout of splits and `grand reunions' or `homecomings' in the Kerala Congress factions in the coming months. And, of course, a more visible Mr. Mani.
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