Southern States - Kerala   

A `handsome' win for Antony

By Radhakrishnan Kuttoor

PATHANAMTHITTA Dec. 6. The Thiruvalla bypoll result is, in effect, a victory of the Chief Minister, A.K. Antony, coming as it did after the Ernakulam debacle and the `I' group's persistent demand for a change in the leadership of the Congress Legislature Party.

Even the United Democratic Front (UDF) campaign managers admit that they did not expect such a `handsome' win for their candidate, Elizabeth Mammen. They were expecting a margin between 1,500 and 2,000 only owing to the complex socio-political scenario in the State as well as the constituency.

In spite of its marginal presence in the constituency, the K. Karunakaran-led `I' group in the Congress had launched a `systematic' campaign in the constituency against the Antony Government as well as the UDF candidate during the run-up to the election. However, the `overplay' of Antony bashing by `I' group spokesmen and some provocative anti-Government statements by the KPCC president, K. Muraleedharan, seem to have boomeranged on the `I' group.

Similarly, the Opposition Left Democratic Front's (LDF) attempts to cash in on the schism in the Malankara Orthodox Church by highlighting the KPCC president's statement that the `Church did not get justice from the Antony Government' seems to have yielded little results. In fact, the pro-UDF elements in the Church had closed ranks towards the last lap of the campaign with the UDF convener, Oommen Chandy, and the Revenue Minister, K.M. Mani, smoothing their ruffled feathers. Mr. Chandy himself had addressed more than 60 gatherings of traditional Christian families in the constituency to explain the Government's stance in the Church case.

Moreover, a silent consolidation of members of the Mar Thoma Church and the Jacobite Church's ire at Mr. Muraleedharan's meeting with the Catholicos of the East, Baselius Marthoma Mathews II, in Kottayam helped the UDF retain some of its traditional vote banks. The LDF's attempts to make use of the services of a former member of the National Commission for Minorities among Pentecostal Churches for its candidate, Varghese George, also came a cropper.

The Chief Minister's whirlwind tour of the constituency in the last two days of the campaign proved very crucial in his `battle' with his bete noire (Mr. Karunakaran). The crowd response to his meetings had surprised even UDF circles.

The poll outcome shows that the UDF election strategists have succeeded in checking a large-scale erosion of its mass base. They had projected the byelection as a crucial `battle' between Mr. Antony and Mr. Karunakaran and a `defeat' would have proved Thiruvalla as Mr. Antony's Waterloo. And it turned out to be a `handsome' victory for Mr. Antony.

Many staunch Leftists in the constituency told this correspondent that they had cast their votes for Mrs. Mammen just to register their protest against the political `machinations' of Mr. Karunakaran and the `opportunism' of the CPI(M). Also, two prominent `I' group MLAs from the district, Adoor Prakash and Malethu Saraladevi, had distanced themselves from the anti-UDF campaign of their group.

However, the UDF lead in the municipal area has come down to 1,256 from 4,000. Similarly, in Kadapra panchayat, the UDF lead has been reduced to 600 from 1,300. Poll analysts attribute this change in voting pattern to the `I' factor.

Political circles point out that the BJP has failed to retain its vote share which it allegedly had `traded' to the Kerala Congress(M) in the 2001 election. The BJP could poll only 7,684 votes, an increase of only 313 votes. According to poll analysts, the BJP could not improve its vote tally despite its vigorous campaign owing to the Nair Service Society (NSS) factor. The Thiruvalla Assembly segment has always witnessed a Nair-Christian `understanding' and this time was no exception. The poll outcome shows that the NSS has succeeded in reaching its `message' to its members: ``why the NSS has thrown its weight behind Mr Antony'', to Nair households.

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