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News Analysis
By C. Raja Mohan
ISLAMABAD: In diplomacy, process is often the product. Engagement between adversarial governments is generally seen as a mere instrument to achieve certain outcomes. But the interaction between them is a reward in itself. It allows small steps of cooperation, generates mutual understanding and creates the space for pre-negotiations on more difficult subjects. That holds specially true of the current state of Indo-Pakistan relations. At Lahore and Agra, India and Pakistan focused on ringing declarations. That emphasis on `diplomatic products' did not really work. As the Prime Minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, prepares to meet the Pakistani leadership early next month, the stress this time must be on laying the foundations for a credible diplomatic process. The series of reciprocal steps announced in the last few weeks by the two sides has opened the door for contacts between the two establishments at various levels. Restoration of transport and communication links that existed before the attack on the Indian Parliament on December 13, 2001 is now on the cards. Additional ideas on connectivity are under consideration. All to the good. But this process is too fragile at the moment. What holds the engagement together is the mutual assurance that the concerns of both sides are being met in a definitive manner even in minimal terms. For India, the main concern relates to cessation of cross-border terrorism, and for Pakistan, it is centred on an early negotiation on the Kashmir question. If terrorist violence continues in Jammu and Kashmir, India will find it hard to stay in the process. If Pakistan fears the engagement with India is all about subjects other than Kashmir, it would be under pressure to terminate it. Both the core issues cross-border terrorism and Jammu and Kashmir will indeed be at the top of the agenda when the formal dialogue begins. In the interim, it is absolutely essential that Pakistan presses the `pause' button on its support to cross-border militancy. New Delhi, on its part, must come up with a variety of confidence-building measures relating to Kashmir. Neither side accepts a formal linkage between the two issues. But both reduction in violence and movement to improve the conditions in Kashmir must proceed in parallel.
What could be such CBMs in relation to Jammu and Kashmir? Pakistan has often wanted, and its President, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, has recently proposed troop reduction along the LoC. The increase in the Indian troop concentration in Kashmir over the last decade are related to the dramatic rise in cross-border infiltration and violence within the State. If those two trends do stay down, India will have little reason to maintain large deployments of military there. Pakistan often talks about the need to improve the human rights situation in Jammu and Kashmir. If peaceful conditions prevail, New Delhi and Srinagar will have no difficulty in considering the release of political prisoners and a variety of other measures to further ease the situation in the valley. Even more important are measures to promote people-to-people cooperation across the LoC and between Jammu and Kashmir and its Pakistan border. When they consider the bus service between Srinagar and Muzaffarabad, India and Pakistan could also consider opening up other traditional routes, such as between Jammu and Sialkot. It might be easier to open the latter route even as road conditions are improved on the former. It is also important that the two sides are not detained by too much focus on modalities and documentation. They should concentrate instead on facilitating legitimate movement across the LoC. The two sides should also consider local trade across the LoC. Weekly markets on designated towns along the LoC and the International Border in Jammu and Kashmir could be of great help. India and Pakistan should also look at promoting interaction between scholars, academics and other key segments of civil society on both sides of the LoC. Water resource management and addressing environmental concerns should be natural topics of conversation between the two Kashmirs. The task of the officials in the coming days is to avoid scoring political points and make it clear that cooperation across the LoC is without prejudice to the positions the two sides affirm on the territorial aspects of the Kashmir question.
While these simple but unconventional ideas are debated on both sides, the immediate attention is on visas. For now at least, much of Indo-Pakistan diplomacy is about giving visas and making it easier for divided families and others to move across the border with ease and dignity. To facilitate the work on the visa issue, raising the staff strength in both the missions has become the priority. The Indian mission in the Pakistani capital is trying all kinds of innovations to cope with the demand for visas. Staff from the different parts of the mission has been drafted to serve in the consular section at least part of the time. And on weekends, there is the call for `shram dan' at the visa office.
The rumours from the border are that land prices between Wagah on the border and the great city of Lahore are rapidly rising amid upbeat expectations about Indo-Pakistan relations. The speculators are apparently hopeful that goods and people will begin to flow between the two sides of the Punjab. Greed and entrepreneurship are as good ways to peace as any other. And that is what the Indo-Pakistan diplomatic `process' is about. It is much larger than the `products' the two governments hope to negotiate.
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