The Hindu : THE DMK'S SHREWD PLAY

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Tuesday, Dec 23, 2003

Opinion

Opinion - Editorials

THE DMK'S SHREWD PLAY

THE DRAVIDA MUNNETRA Kazhagam's exit from the National Democratic Alliance is a function of shrewd, hardheaded political calculation rather than of the high-sounding reasons spelt out in the resolution of the party's high-level policy committee, which paved the way for the strategy shift announced by Mr. M. Karunanidhi. Given the configuration of forces in Tamil Nadu politics, where alliance and arithmetic have been the key to electoral success over the past quarter century, the interest of Chief Minister Jayalalithaa's ruling party, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, seemed best served by the chief adversary staying in the NDA camp. It was decidedly not in the interest of the AIADMK to have the DMK break away towards a potential alliance with the re-united Congress, the Left parties, and the smaller regional parties. Arithmetically at least, that is in terms of a sum of presumed vote shares, such an alignment would be virtually impossible to beat. Ms. Jayalalithaa's best electoral chance, it seemed, lay in a triangular contest and, unsurprisingly, she has been advocating a third force grouping in national politics. As for Mr. Karunanidhi's party, the balance of consideration was between seeking the protection of the Central Government and spearheading a strong alliance that could aim to sweep the 2004 Lok Sabha contest in Tamil Nadu. The decision to leave the NDA, pull its two Ministers out of the Central Government, and extend iffy, issue-based support to the NDA represents a cleverly crafted resolution of the DMK's dilemma.

At a superficial level, the DMK's status vis-à-vis the coalition ruling at the Centre is the same as that of the Telugu Desam Party. Substantively, of course, the two regional parties are virtually in opposite camps. For existential reasons, the TDP absolutely needs to sail against the Congress at a national level. The DMK, on the other hand, has signalled that it is open to the idea of allying with the Congress and its fellow travellers in Tamil Nadu. Simultaneously, it has sought to maximise its comparative advantage by keeping the AIADMK as well as the Bharatiya Janata Party in a state of uncertainty about its end game. The DMK clearly perceives its best electoral chance to lie in the AIADMK and the BJP staying in two separate camps in Tamil Nadu for as long as possible. The DMK president has thus positioned his party to take advantage of whatever late swerve (or reverse swing) might occur before the Lok Sabha election.

Over the past year, Mr. Karunanidhi's party has been leading agitations and protests against the State Government, rubbing shoulders with the Congress and the Left parties. Ideologically, the DMK and the BJP are not natural allies. Nor does the BJP want to sever its subtle links with the AIADMK. The decision of the DMK has naturally been welcomed by the Congress and the Left parties, which have been asking the party to pull out of the NDA and lead a "secular front" in Tamil Nadu. The problem arises for other NDA allies such the Pattali Makkal Katchi and the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam. They will now have to decide on the balance of advantage for themselves in the new situation. Does it lie in joining the DMK and walking out of the Government and the NDA? Or in staying where they are now in a posture of wait and watch? Although the DMK's exit from the NDA can be expected to prepare the ground for the entry of the AIADMK, that outcome cannot by any means be taken for granted. Just as Ms. Jayalalithaa played a masterly hand during the run-up to the 2001 Assembly elections, the DMK appears to have seized the initiative this time round.

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