The Hindu : Vajpayee's musings: getting bold on Pakistan

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Wednesday, Dec 31, 2003

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Vajpayee's musings: getting bold on Pakistan

By C. Raja Mohan

NEW DELHI Dec. 30. One consistent theme in the annual New Year musings offered by the Prime Minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, has been India's difficult relationship with Pakistan. Three years in a row, Mr. Vajpayee has raised himself above the usual polemics with the western neighbour and tried to look ahead.

As he prepares for the summit of the South Asian nations in Islamabad this week, Mr. Vajpayee has a perfect opening in his musings to unveil a bold vision on two themes — transforming the relationship with Pakistan and setting goals for an ambitious regionalism in the sub-continent.

New Delhi's efforts in the last few days to downplay expectations from his visit to Islamabad will not, hopefully, dampen Mr. Vajpayee's irrepressible enthusiasm for exploring different options to break the political deadlock with Pakistan.

The establishment is determined not to repeat the wrenching experience of the Agra summit in July 2001, where run-away popular expectations on Indo-Pak. relations could not be matched by the outcomes. Equally important, the system wants to protect Mr. Vajpayee from nasty political theatrics at Islamabad.

This Indian approach is understandable. Fortunately, there have been clear signals from the Pakistan President, Pervez Musharraf, that nothing will be done to embarrass Mr. Vajpayee during his visit to Islamabad.

The assertion by the Pakistan Foreign Office yesterday that the Kashmir question will not be raised in the multilateral deliberations of the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) is the latest among the many positive signals from Islamabad.

Having insured himself against the risk of diplomatic surprise at Islamabad, Mr. Vajpayee must now let his natural instinct to think big on the future of India's relationship with Pakistan and act bold.

A key theme of Mr. Vajpayee's first set of reflections published in January 2001, was the political determination to bury the bitter legacy of Partition in the sub-continent. The Kashmir question was emblematic of that legacy.

Declaring India's willingness to go beyond the "beaten track" on Jammu and Kashmir, Mr. Vajpayee said his Government will be "bold and innovative" in designing a "new architecture for peace and prosperity" in the sub-continent.

The sentiments expressed by Mr. Vajpayee prepared India to overcome the intense resentment of the Kargil war and get ready to re-engage Pakistan. The perception of failure at Agra in July, the dramatic developments on September 11, the attack on the Indian Parliament on December 13 and the consequent Indian military mobilisation hardened the mood in New Delhi against Pakistan.

Yet Mr. Vajpayee found a way to combine the words of reconciliation with firmness to combat terrorism in January 2002. He reaffirmed India's readiness "to walk more than half the distance" in resolving all contentious issues, including Kashmir. At the same time, Mr. Vajpayee warned that Pakistan "will be solely responsible for the consequences of encouraging terrorism."

After gaining substantial international support to its concerns on Pakistan-sponsored terrorism and the successful elections in Jammu and Kashmir last year, Mr. Vajpayee had more reasons to be upbeat at the dawn of 2003.

He promised Islamabad "once our two people experience the fruits of a tension-free and cooperative environment, we will be able to see the Kashmir issue in its proper perspective and arrive at an amicable and lasting solution."

Whether by design or accident, India and Pakistan are today close to a tension-free moment. For whatever reasons — tactical or strategic, internal or external — Pakistan has affected a pause in cross-border infiltration. And the levels of violence in Jammu and Kashmir, too, have begun to come down.

Mr. Vajpayee surely understands that the task of statesmanship is to seize this moment and make it enduring. His vision must involve both the reiteration of the commitment to a substantive dialogue on Kashmir as well as a set of unilateral measures to signal a new approach to the question.

For Mr. Vajpayee, who has repeatedly said he is prepared to go beyond stated positions on Jammu and Kashmir, the first task is not difficult. What he needs to put on the table are specific Kashmir-related confidence building measures that will signal India's commitment to alter the dynamics in Kashmir.

A variety of Kashmir-specific CBMs are indeed conceivable. But a unilateral reduction in Indian troop strength would send strong signals. It could electrify the mood between the two nations on the eve of his visit to Pakistan. The decision would also raise the stakes for the international community in preventing a return to renewed cross-border terrorism once the winter months are over.

Mr. Vajpayee's incipient engagement of the Pakistani leadership can be defined either in narrow terms or in a broader sweep. The former would involve expression of support to the current normalisation of bilateral relations and a decision to meet again.

A bolder approach from Mr. Vajpayee will mean specific actions to improve the situation on the ground, unveiling a firm commitment to a formal dialogue on all issues, a readiness to cooperate on mega trans-border commercial projects, and setting the tone for a different relationship.

India is right in arguing that the excessive focus on Indo-Pak. relations should not detract from the principal purpose of Mr. Vajpayee's trip to Islamabad — to give a new impetus to regional cooperation in the sub-continent. The reality is that any significant improvement in Indo-Pak. relations will at once feed into the negotiations at SAARC. But at SAARC, again, it is for India to take the lead in announcing unilateral economic steps to accelerate the process of regional integration.

By talking of open borders and common currency in South Asia, Mr. Vajpayee has raised expectations on the future direction of SAARC. He now owes it to himself to tell the sub-continent on how we get there — the milestones that we pass and the way stations where we pause to reflect on the journey.

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