The Hindu : Opposition can still do it

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Wednesday, Jan 07, 2004

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Opposition can still do it

By Harish Khare

Any Opposition party or a combination of Opposition parties that wants to displace the BJP-led Government will need to devise a strategy to exploit the thinness of the saffron spread.

POLITICAL PARTIES and leaders find themselves in a curious mood as the Bharatiya Janata Party establishment steers the country towards a general election in late April/early May. The ruling party is behaving as if it is already home and dry. Everyone seems to be worshipping at the shrine of "pragmatism". A life-long Congressman such as Sharad Pawar says he is not averse to joining hands with the Shiv Sena or the BJP; and, a life-long "Jan Sanghi", Kalyan Singh, does not mind singing public praises of the Congress president. Alliances, principled or unprincipled, are in fashion. The hardcore Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh ideologues are unhappy that the pragmatism of the kind practised by the Vajpayee Government was distracting the "movement" away from its fundamental objectives, whereas the Congress finds itself bewildered about how it has suddenly lost momentum. After the recent defeats in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, the party appears strangely short on ideas — and inspiration — on how to maximise its assets and work around its limitations. Of course, the operative assumption is that the Congress will be able to learn crucial organisational lessons from these defeats and will want to undertake corrective measures in time, especially finding ways of winning back the tribal vote.

Still, the fundamental question, then, is whether the Vajpayee-led National Democratic Alliance has already won the next Lok Sabha poll even before a vote has been cast. In other words, can the Opposition parties, particularly the Congress, find ways of pooling their votes and resources to see the back of the BJP-led Government at the Centre? The burden is on the Congress leadership to take the lead in first convincing the non-BJP political parties that it is still in the arena to win the game, rather than to preserve the ancien regime's lien on the party.

Notwithstanding the "India Shining" hype, there is no evidence that the country as a whole is today more enamoured of the BJP than it was five years ago, when the Kargil conflict worked magic for the deshbhakts. Admittedly, the Prime Minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, appears to enjoy a formidable political reputation and commands considerable respectability; but, that is about all, and this "Atal factor" is not encashable electorally all over the country. If that were not the case, so many allies would not have been leaving the NDA fold. And the reason why the Telugu Desam Party was keen on advancing the Assembly poll in Andhra Pradesh was because the Chief Minister, Chandrababu Naidu, was perhaps not all that sure that the "Atal factor" would dilute the liabilities of double incumbency.

Even after the vastly impressive victories recently in the three north Indian States, it is difficult to see how the BJP would be able to repeat its 1999 tally. Last time, the BJP notched up big numbers in Bihar (23 out 29 seats contested), Madhya Pradesh (29 out of 40), Gujarat (20 out of 26), Rajasthan (16 out of 24) and Uttar Pradesh (29 out of 77). Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Rajasthan are saturated States and the Opposition is not so totally decimated that the BJP would be allowed to improve upon these numbers. In Bihar (and the breakaway Jharkhand), the BJP is much weaker and the Laloo Prasad Yadav-led forces remain entrenched. And, in the crucial "Ram country", Uttar Pradesh, the BJP finds itself pushed to the third slot; its calculations of an alliance with Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party have gone awry and it cannot rely on any understanding with Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party. Unless the BJP leadership finds a way of making peace with the former Chief Minister, Kalyan Singh, it cannot possibly hope to come anywhere near repeating its 1999 performance. In fact, Mr. Vajpayee himself may find the going pretty tough in the Lucknow Lok Sabha constituency, notwithstanding all the international acclaim that has come his way.

The national mood in India changes every three months. The BJP and its hype-managers are doing an excellent job of artificially creating what L.K. Advani has, of late, taken to calling the "feel good factor." The hype-manufacturers appropriate every "positive" development for the BJP — be it a cricket victory or a stock market milestone. The BJP mythmakers' job has been made easier because the Sonia Gandhi establishment would not acknowledge the achievements of the Narasimha Rao-Manmohan Singh era and this enables the spin-masters to hijack economic reforms/liberalisation as a saffron innovation. Nonetheless, the "feel good factor", like the Sensex, is a manipulated reality rather than the actual ground situation, and therefore accords only a psychological advantage to the ruling party. It is up to the Opposition parties whether they want to give in to this hype or are able to see through the BJP's smoke and mirror game.

Any Opposition party or a combination of Opposition parties that wants to displace the BJP-led Government will need to devise a strategy to exploit the thinness of the saffron spread. It means cobbling together alliances, State by State; in most places, the Congress would have to take the lead in bringing together the anti-BJP forces on a realistic basis. The Congress leadership would have to show extraordinary perseverance in helping the divided Opposition leaders overcome their mutual antipathies. For example, a major test would be its ability to bring Ram Vilas Paswan and Laloo Prasad Yadav on the same platform. On its own part, the Congress will have to accommodate its potential alliance partners in the areas where it is strong if it wants to be given the time of the day in the areas where it is weak. Working for the ouster of the BJP-led NDA has to become the guiding principle.

If the Opposition parties get motivated to work together, then the next task would be to expose the BJP's split personality. So far, the "Atal factor" has allowed the BJP to get away with pretending to be something other than what it is. For the time being, the BJP may not be pursuing the communal agenda but there is no getting away from the fact that it is a party committed to a kind of fundamentalism.

The BJP-RSS links remain undiluted; if anything, the Vajpayee Government has bestowed respectability on the RSS, its ideology, and its icons. Nothing signified this more than the installation of the V.D. Savarkar portrait in the Central Hall of Parliament; not to mention the fact that every year the Prime Minister has faithfully, without fail, participated in the annual RSS ritual of guru dakshina. Nor is the self-styled moderate BJP prepared to distance itself from its Hindutva-centric divisive agenda. The country, especially the crucial middle classes, need to be reminded of the BJP's double-speak.

However, merely "exposing" the BJP's "communal" spots would not be enough. The country is a bit tired of the insincere sparring over the "communalism/secular" divide. Instead, the Opposition would have to give the country a convincing reason why this Government needs to be voted out of power. It is common political sense that the electorate will not easily allow itself to be persuaded to vote a party out, without feeling reasonably convinced about the incumbent government's sins as well as about the challengers' virtues.

In all the "Shining India" and the "feel good factor" hype, it is easy to forget that the majority in the country still remains deprived of even the basic needs. The Arun Shouries and the Arun Jaitleys can keep on making tall claims about India's global achievements; the realities at home remain unvarnished and unattractive for the majority of Indians.

The middle classes have not yet become the majority group, even though the middle class aspirations may have seeped down to the under classes. It is up to the Opposition to come up with ideas and solutions that would appeal to the majority of the deprived Indians, without appearing to want to roll back middle class entitlements. For example, if the BJP could energise the jobless in Madhya Pradesh against the Digvijay Singh regime it should be similarly possible for the Opposition to galvanise the millions of jobless young men and women against the NDA Government.

Above all, the Opposition will have to find a messenger who can be marketed along with the alternative message. This brings us to the all-too-familiar "Sonia factor". The Congress party's collective imagination runs dry in even acknowledging that Ms. Gandhi could be a source of weakness in the battle against the BJP. The onus is ultimately on Ms. Gandhi herself — whether she still cares enough for the Nehruvian legacy and whether she is willing to jettison her power ambitions in order to preserve that legacy.

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