The Hindu : Kashmir situation better, but not `near-normal'

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Sunday, Jan 11, 2004

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Kashmir situation better, but not `near-normal'

By Praveen Swami

SRINAGAR, JAN. 10. Official figures show that terrorist violence in Jammu and Kashmir declined in 2003, but also suggest that the State is far from the near-normality claimed by some State Government officials.

Data from the Union Ministry of Home Affairs exclusively obtained by show that there were 2,575 terrorism-related incidents in the State last year, down from 3,101 the previous year. Some 377 security personnel, including special police officers and pro-India militia members, died along with 808 civilians and 1,526 terrorists, 554 of whom were claimed to have been foreign nationals.

Violence in 2002 claimed 521 security force personnel, 966 civilians and 1,747 terrorists, 516 of them foreigners. The levels of violence have been declining steadily since 2001, when there were 3,505 acts of terrorist violence in which 706 security force personnel were killed, the highest recorded in the State. Some 971 civilians and 2119 terrorists, 488 of them foreigners, had also died that year.

The Ministry of Home Affairs' internal data varies marginally from that published in its annual reports to Parliament because of differences in computational practices between the Intelligence Bureau and the Jammu and Kashmir Police.

Overall, fatalities in terrorism in 2003 were lower than that of 2002 for all months except June and September. The numbers of violent incidents were lower in all months of 2003, compared with 2002. It is significant, however, that violence has been falling steadily since 2001. This would suggest speculation that the relatively-peaceful year in Jammu and Kashmir is not the consequence of any recent decision by Pakistan to de-escalate its "State-run jehad."

As such, the Ministry of Home Affairs data makes clear, there seems to be no connection between the India-Pakistan détente process and the levels of violence in Jammu and Kashmir. The levels of violence in 2003, interestingly, were similar to those witnessed prior to the 1999 Kargil war, which sparked off a sharp escalation of terrorist activity.

Security force losses last year were only marginally lower than the 413 fatalities in 1998, and 355 in 1997. The 1,407 acts of terrorist violence directly involving security forces in 2003 were actually higher than the 1,211 recorded in 1998, and 1,116 in 1997. Significantly, killings of terrorists in 2003 were at a significantly higher level than the 1,111 shot dead in 1998 and 1,262 in 1997.

What these figures make clear is that a violent battle to hold ground in Jammu and Kashmir continued through 2003, notwithstanding the slow inching-forward of a dialogue process. Yet, the fact remains that fatalities have declined — although only by the macabre standards of Jammu and Kashmir could the death of over a thousand people a year be described as progress towards peace.

One explanation for the decline in fatalities might be that there are fewer terrorists present in the State. Some Indian officials believe infiltration through 2003 was lower than in past years. It is impossible to verify intelligence estimates of cross-border movement, but the Line of Control seems to have been considerably quieter than in past years even before the ongoing ceasefire was put in palace.

The Ministry of Home Affairs monitors recorded 2,841 incidents of cross-LoC fire last year, down from 5,767 in 2002 and 4,134 in 2001. Last year also saw no sharp spikes in LoC firing during the summer, into the autumn. While last June witnessed 1,352 incidents of border fire, this time there were just 392. In October, 2001, there were 848 LoC fire exchanges; last October there were just 265.

Given that most LoC exchanges are triggered off by Pakistani covering fire to protect infiltrating groups, this would suggest scaled-back infiltration for much of the year. On the other hand, since fewer terrorists were killed than in past years, "jehadi" groups would also have needed far less personnel to reinforce their ranks.

"We will have to wait until March or April to see whether Pakistan actually intends to scale back violence," one intelligence analyst told . "By then, terrorist groups will really be depleted of cadre, and Pakistan will have to decide whether to keep the `jehad' going or let it die off once and for all."

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