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IMPLICATIONS OF A PARTNERSHIP

THE USE OF the term "Next Steps in Strategic Partnership" to describe the envisaged expansion of cooperation between India and the United States in several vital areas seems designed to create the impression that the two countries have resolved differences that had blocked a more fruitful relationship. The two countries declared an intent to cooperate in the spheres of non-military nuclear activities and civilian space programmes, to resume trade in high technology products, and to initiate a dialogue on missile defence. However, if attendant circumstances are considered, it would appear that optimism is not warranted. First of all, the partnership will not begin to function until India strengthens the legislative framework and the enforcement mechanism to prevent the "misuse" or re-export of high technology items. While the U.S. can, and does, impose sanctions on Indian companies or entities that violate the terms of agreements on trade in such items, it wants India to carry the main burden of policing this commerce. It was hardly a coincidence that American officials made references to the re-export of sensitive technology from India to Iraq almost at the same time the "Next Steps" were being announced in New Delhi and Washington. As realistically envisaged by the Americans, the establishment of a strict monitoring mechanism will not be accomplished in the near future.

While India might need to import sophisticated tools for enhancing the safety of its nuclear reactors, sourcing from the U.S. can create further problems. Washington maintains controls on exports under the Non-Proliferation Act of 1978. The controls cover the export of commodities or technology or software that could be of significance for nuclear explosive purposes or indeed all unsafeguarded nuclear activities. Indian policy has consistently refused to accept the discriminatory global nuclear bargain, including the demand for full-scope safeguards on the nuclear programme. New Delhi might have to face the difficult decision to throw open unsafeguarded facilities if it wants to reap the benefits of the partnership. The Indian nuclear programme might come under fresh pressure. There is nothing controversial about the cooperation envisaged in the civilian space programme. One advantage for India might be a general lowering of the price of key components for the space programme as U.S. companies compete with their European counterparts as a source of supply. However, the Indian Space Research Organisation might not want to disturb the stable and fruitful relationship it has with European companies. India and the U.S. propose only to initiate a dialogue on missile defences at this stage. This proposal might have been tagged on to the partnership programme as a way of thanking the Vajpayee Government for the alacrity with which it greeted the Bush administration's National Missile Defence venture. The initiation of the dialogue could have an impact on the cooperative endeavours that India is exploring with Israel and Russia in the missile field.

While the intent to begin the enhanced partnership was announced on Tuesday, the text is known to have been finalised in December. The Vajpayee Government, which requested the delay, probably wanted to time the announcement as close to the elections as possible. It is not very clear whether the improved partnership will take into its ambit the Proliferation Security Initiative under which signatory countries try to interdict on the high seas vessels believed to be conveying components of a weapons of mass destruction programme. India will not gain much from the new partnership if it gets entangled in procedures that will alienate it from countries that are its, but might not be America's, friends.

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