The Hindu : DRIVING THROUGH THE FOG

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Thursday, Jan 15, 2004

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DRIVING THROUGH THE FOG

FOR DECADES THE road to peace in Jammu and Kashmir has been shrouded in fog and all those who tried to navigate it risked falling into the abyss below. Now at last, the fog appears to be lifting. The Government of India will, on January 22, begin its first public dialogue with the All Parties Hurriyat Conference. More important than the dialogue itself are indications that something genuinely significant is under way. If the Secretary of State, Colin Powell, is to be believed, the peace bus is being driven by the United States. True or not, all the passengers seem heartened by this assurance. In an interview to The Hindu, the Srinagar religious leader, Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, recently said the APHC no longer believed that the United Nations resolutions on Jammu and Kashmir would be implemented. This suggests the APHC will come into the dialogue focussing on what the Central Government might actually be willing to offer. The APHC has abandoned several pre-conditions it traditionally placed for talking to the Government — for example, that it should recognise Jammu and Kashmir as a disputed territory, or that APHC representatives should first be allowed to travel to Pakistan for consultations.

How does one account for the APHC leaders' new willingness to talk to the Government even in the face of serious threats from terrorist groups? It is easy to attribute their position, as some have done, to opportunism or corruption. The fact is that the umbrella organisation's centrists have sound political reasons to talk. One consideration is that as India-Pakistan detente moves ahead, the APHC could find itself marginalised. Secondly, it has been placed under pressure by the deepening of democracy in Jammu and Kashmir. Its leaders need to take what they can get, or run the risk of being shut out by those who have actually proved their credentials to represent the people of the State. Finally, the APHC's constituency, like most ordinary people in Jammu and Kashmir, is fed up of watching friends and families die in a war that has turned on its own. Many in the organisation must understand these sentiments: Mirwaiz Farooq's father, Mohammad Farooq, was assassinated by Islamist terrorists, as was his colleague Sajjad Lone's father, Abdul Gani Lone.

But while the fog is thinning, the abyss still exists. Several Pakistan-based extremist groups have said they intend to continue or escalate jihadi violence. The fact that Pakistan has not so far disbanded jihadi training means the threats are credible. Although 2003 was a relatively peaceful year, levels of violence are only back to where they were in 1998 — levels that can in no way be described as normal. Moreover, violence has been declining since 2001, so the cutback in killings seems independent of the dialogue process. Indeed, the very assumption that a political dialogue will strip terror of `legitimacy' could be tested in the coming months. For one thing, terrorism thrives not merely in Kashmir where it has an ideological context, but also in Jammu where it has none. In the mind of New Delhi's policy establishment, much depends on just how far the United States is able to push Pakistan in the direction of peace. Yet, it is worth at least considering the perils of great power intervention, which could actually encourage Pakistan to behave unreasonably, in the knowledge its back is guarded. The word `historic' has been used liberally in comment on the recently initiated dialogue process. A good beginning has been made. It will be wise to adopt a positive outlook but reserve judgment on events for just a little while longer.

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