The Hindu : LIBERALS ON THE BACKFOOT

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Saturday, Jan 17, 2004

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LIBERALS ON THE BACKFOOT

IRAN'S PRESIDENT, SYED Mohammed Khatami, and his associates in the pro-reform wing of the theocratic regime are faced with the consequences of their failure to defend their cause spiritedly enough. A conservative-dominated constitutional watchdog body, the Council of Guardians, has barred hundreds of pro-reform candidates from contesting the parliamentary elections of February. The Council relied on a very expansive interpretation of an enabling statute to reject the nominations, including those of two Deputy Speakers and 80 members of the existing House. While the Supreme Religious Leader, Ayatollah Syed Ali Khamenei, has asked the Council to reconsider its decision, the reformers cannot take much comfort from his intervention. The Council will not ignore the Ayatollah's advice, but it is likely to validate the candidatures of only the `moderates' in the reform camp. The fissures within the reform camp will widen if some among them agree to contest on the Council's terms. However, the liberals stand to lose even if the Council backs off completely on the orders of the Ayatollah. The true, if unstated, objective of Iranian reformers is the curtailment of the power of the Ayatollah and his cohorts. They only enhance his relevance when they look to him for justice.

In delivering a humiliating snub to the liberals, the Council challenged them to do their worst. A Vice-President, the Interior Minister and the governors of all the provinces have warned that the Khatami Government will quit if this assault on democracy is not reversed. Pro-reform legislators have staged a sit-in at parliament house and have threatened to hold rallies in protest. However, the conservatives are not likely to be deflected from their agenda by the threat of an extra-parliamentary agitation. Their loyalists command the armed forces and the young zealots who support them are organised in militias. The muscle power at the disposal of the conservatives proved more than a match for the inchoate masses who rallied to the liberal cause whenever they fought each other in the past. The conservatives also have reason to believe that the liberal camp has exhausted its firepower. In the past the liberals could count on the unstinted support of students, other sections of the youth and women who voted overwhelmingly for pro-reform candidates in every election since Mr. Khatami's landslide victory in 1997. These sections have become progressively disillusioned with a liberal leadership that has failed consistently to fight for the rights of its constituents. The reformers in the Government and Parliament put up a weak resistance when members of their own camp were harassed, assaulted or arrested for their attempts to advance the liberal agenda. On all those occasions, Mr. Khatami advised the pro-reform forces to work within the system and not press their disaffection beyond a point.

The vast majority of Iranians, who have repeatedly expressed their desire for change by electorally supporting the liberals, are not just disenchanted with the vacillating attitude of the leadership. Many of them appear to be convinced that pro-reform politicians have been acting merely as a buffer for the conservatives whom they claim to oppose. There is a distinct possibility that the turnout in the February polls will be far below the traditionally high levels as Iranians express their loss of faith in the system. True to his track record, Mr. Khatami has advised pro-reform parliamentarians and their dwindling circle of supporters to be patient and seek redress through legal channels. However, Mr. Khatami might have to resign in order to regain credibility and keep alive his mission of creating a new order that blends the values of the Enlightenment with the principles of Islam.

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