The Hindu : The peace maker

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Sunday, Jan 18, 2004

Opinion

Opinion - News Analysis

The peace maker

By Amit Baruah

NEW DELHI, JAN. 17 . A measure of success of the fledgling India-Pakistan peace process has been the circumspection with which leaders on both sides have been making public statements on matters that have divided them bitterly in the past.

There have been no rhetorical flourishes; both the Indians and Pakistanis have worked hard to ensure that the dialogue should continue. The establishment hawks on both sides, it would appear, have been silenced for the moment.

The peace process itself is fragile, a fact often stressed by the United States and leading lights in the Bush administration. What, then, is one to make of the U.S. Secretary of State, Colin Powell's January 10 remarks?

"And I think now that Afghanistan and Iraq, the two wars, are behind us and we're in reconstruction, rebuilding, security phase, we have a chance to use our partnerships and our alliances to greater effect in solving other regional problems," Gen. Powell said in an interview to U.S. News and World Report.

``... The work we're doing with the Indians and the Pakistanis produced a breakthrough over the last several days but there's more work to be done, and we offered our good offices to the Indians and Pakistanis over the last couple of days... " the Secretary of State said on the South Asian equation.

``We've been working with the Indians and Pakistanis for almost two years, from a period of, `we're going to nuclear war this weekend,' to, you know, this historic change. And so I think that a lot of the seeds that were planted are now germinating and you'll [see?] us harvesting the crops," he added.

In essence, Gen. Powell is arguing that the U.S. "work" with India and Pakistan produced the "breakthrough" and American good offices continue to remain key for the process to succeed.

The "two-year" timeframe of work would take back us to January 2002 when the Pakistan President, Pervez Musharraf, had promised that he would not permit his country's territory to be used for terrorist activity.

At that point, India found General Musharraf's promises insufficient but, in January 2004, the same promise has been spelt out in a bilateral statement between India and Pakistan.

By publicly taking credit for the "success", the United States has, at once, confirmed that it is, indeed, playing the role of a "mediator". If someone doesn't like the word "mediator" then we can settle on the less controversial "manager".

After the December 2001 attack on Parliament House, the U.S. and Britain had gone into a diplomatic overdrive to ensure that India's military mobilisation did not lead to full-fledged war.

When that danger receded, the U.S. entered a phase of quiet negotiations (or working with the two countries, as Gen. Powell put it) to ensure that the tensions of 2002 did not recur.

Gen. Powell's statements have, however, queered the pitch. Clearly, the Government of India, for one, would like to project that the agreement with Pakistan is bilateral; and that no third party is involved. In an election year, American pressure will give the Opposition a talking point.

In Pakistan, the situation is, perhaps, a little more complicated. Most people believe that Gen. Musharraf has been acting under American pressure - especially since the events of September 11, 2001.

In dealings with India, till the statement made by Gen. Powell, peace-making with New Delhi remained a grey area in Pakistan. From Pakistan's point of view, American involvement is a good thing - after all, Islamabad has been demanding it all these years. But it will hardly increase Gen. Musharraf's popularity at home.

American officials have been at pains in recent months to emphasise that they are not offering "final solutions" to problems between India and Pakistan - it is for New Delhi and Islamabad to work these out.

Not surprising, if you've been working away quietly at the national positions of two warring countries for the last two years.

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The peace maker