The Hindu : Premature polls

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Tuesday, Jan 20, 2004

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Premature polls — then and now

By K. K. Katyal

While there have been instances of forced resignations of governments leading to premature polls, the present move for advancing elections is different.

IT IS not for the first time that the Lok Sabha elections are to be advanced, there being several instances in the post-Nehru period. But this will be the second case of voluntary decision by the ruling establishment to cut short its term. In all other cases, those in power were forced by political compulsions to seek the people's verdict afresh.

There was no early or mid-term poll during the first two decades of republican India — a reflection of political stability which could be ascribed both to the leadership of Jawaharlal Nehru, and to the momentum of the freedom struggle sustaining the Congress party even after Independence. The period that followed witnessed — barring the Narasimha Rao spell — instability of varying types, which continued till 1999. That the days of the single-party majority rule are over is clear by now. In the initial phase — from 1996 onward — the political elite made a mess of the coalition experiment, as was evident from the fact that there were three general elections in as many years (in 1996, 1998 and 1999). The present Government can pat itself on the back for almost completing its tenure but some firm evidence is needed to conclude that the country is well set on the path of political coherence. A lot depends on how today's political leaders, especially those in the Opposition, conduct themselves.

In this context, the present moves by the non-National Democratic Alliance parties for adjustments, if not for a firm alliance, become relevant. The Congress has not quite covered itself with glory, with conflicting voices from within its camp on the choice of a "shadow Prime Minister" — or, to be specific, on whether or not it would insist on Sonia Gandhi leading the government in case the BJP and its allies are ousted from power. As against that, the BJP — especially the Prime Minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee — has given a better account of itself, both in forging alliances and in projecting the leader. The role and conduct of the present Opposition is, thus, crucial for the future political pattern.

Of the two, the first voluntary decision to advance elections was taken in 1970 — by Indira Gandhi, the then Prime Minister. However, the parallel between that and the present move is limited. Indira Gandhi felt cornered because of the developments set in motion by the Congress split the previous year. To stay in power, she heavily depended on the communists and the DMK. That was not a happy experience — she and her strategy managers had to humour the leaders of the two parties and accommodate them, by meeting their "unreasonable" demands. She found the political climate propitious for the electoral gamble. It paid off and she emerged stronger, making good use of the garibi hatao (remove poverty) slogan.

The decision on premature dissolution of the Lok Sabha was taken by Indira Gandhi in consultation with a small group of top confidants without taking the Cabinet into confidence. As a matter of fact, some of the Ministers were taken aback by the official announcement. Later, however, she wrote to them, giving the rationale for the decision.

The present move for a fresh election is different, at least on three counts. One, the election is to be advanced by some five months now, as against more than 15 months in 1970-71. Two, there is no political crisis forcing the Prime Minister to seek a fresh mandate. As seen by the present rulers, the feel-good factor in the economic field, the victory in the recent Assembly elections and confusion in the Opposition ranks will help them get another term. Three, the BJP has been engaged in intensive consultations within the party as also with the other constituents of the NDA.

It was in 1979 that the ruling establishment, for the first time, was forced to call for fresh elections. Charan Singh, leader of a faction that broke away from the Janata Party, formed the Government in dubious circumstances — so much so that it did not face the Lok Sabha even once, there being no doubt that he was in a minority right from the time he assumed power.

The then President, N. Sanjiva Reddy, later narrated the circumstances that led him to order the fresh poll in his book, "Without Fear or Favour", thus: "Following large-scale defections, the Janata Party (which was in power, with Morarji Desai as the Prime Minister) was reduced to a minority and Morarji was forced to submit his resignation. On being asked to do so, the Leader of the Opposition attempted to form a government but reported failure. He, however, advised me that a combination of parties had emerged which was likely to form a government under the leadership of Charan Singh. I satisfied myself on the basis of the evidence supplied by Charan Singh and the outgoing Prime Minister, Morarji Desai, and the former had greater support. Accordingly, I invited Charan Singh to form a government, which he did. He was soon obliged to resign as one of the important groups that had promised him support changed its mind and thought it fit to oppose him in less than a month. While resigning, Charan Singh advised dissolution of the Lok Sabha.... Apart from the advice tendered by the Charan Singh Government, it was clear that almost all political parties, except the Janata Party, were in favour of dissolution. In the circumstances, I came to the conclusion that the best method of ending the country's political impasse was to accept the clearly expressed view of the majority in favour of dissolving the Lok Sabha."

In 1991, the President, R. Venkataraman, found the Government headed by Chandra Shekhar face to face with a serious crisis. That was in the wake of reports that two policemen of the Haryana Government were caught maintaining a "surveillance" on Rajiv Gandhi, leader of the Congress which was providing the crucial support from outside to the minority Government. The Congress was infuriated and created problems for the Government, without formally withdrawing support. Though there was an air of untenability about the circumstances in which Chandra Shekhar formed the Government and stayed in power, his decision to quit and the announcement of resignation in the Lok Sabha had an element of drama. In December 1997, the United Front Government, headed by I.K. Gujral, collapsed when the Congress withdrew its outside support. Though the withdrawal decision was conveyed by the party president, Sitaram Kesri, it was actually taken by Sonia Gandhi who, by then, had become the real power centre. The Congress wanted Mr. Gujral to drop the Ministers belonging to the DMK, which, as seen by the Congress, was indicted by the Jain Commission during its inquiry into the circumstances leading to the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi. Mr. Gujral refused. His Government resigned and a fresh election became inevitable — about two years after the previous one.

The Rashtrapati Bhavan Press Communique issued on December 4, 1997 narrated the unsuccessful efforts by the President, K.R. Narayanan, to explore the possibility of a new government and said: "The President took note of the fact that the people of India needed a reprieve from political instability and deserve a dispensation in which the government is able to discharge its constitutional duties towards the well-being and betterment of the people of India without being deflected from the primary task. He has borne in mind the paramount importance of national cohesion, political integrity and the need to ascertain the democratic will of the people". The President, it said, dissolved the 11th Lok Sabha and directed constitution of the new House by March 15, 1998.

What happened in 1999 — the defeat of the first Vajpayee Government and a fresh election in less than 18 months — is recent history. The Rashtrapati Bhavan Communique of April 26, 1999, recounted the President's bid for an alternative but noted: "The President could not but observe that the ruling alliance had lost its majority because of a lack of cohesion within its ranks and those who voted out the alliance showed the same lack of cohesion when trying to form an alternate government. In this situation, the President reached the conclusion that the time had arrived for the democratic will of the people to be ascertained once again so that a government can be formed which can confidently address the urgent needs of our people".

There have been instances of forced resignations of governments, leading to premature polls. The present case is qualitatively different. Wait for what the next Rashtrapati Bhavan Communique has to say.

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Premature polls — then and now