The Hindu : Battlelines to be drawn soon

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Friday, Jan 23, 2004

Tamil Nadu

Tamil Nadu

Battlelines to be drawn soon

By V.Jayanth

CHENNAI, JAN. 22. The main Opposition, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), has sewn up a formidable front and christened it the Democratic Progressive Alliance (DPA). With the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) president, M. Venkaiah Naidu, set to meet the All-India Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) leader, Jayalalithaa, on January 28, they only need to firm up the pact and draw the battlelines.

With only two main parties in her alliance, Ms. Jayalalithaa may find it easier to reach a seat-sharing pact perhaps even at the first meeting, leaving only identification of constituencies to the State BJP.

The DMK, which is grappling with the seat-sharing exercise, is confident of hammering out "an amicable settlement very soon". Party seniors insist that an "atmosphere of camaraderie pervades the DPA and a spirit of give and take will mark the negotiations".

The national parties align with one or the other of the Dravidian parties, which have ruled Tamil Nadu since 1967. Till 1998, it was the Congress or its breakaway group, Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC), which gained from the alliance and the two switched from the DMK to the AIADMK with ease. (The TMC has since merged with the parent party).

It was in 1998 that the BJP made its entry to the Lok Sabha from this State, forging an alliance with the AIADMK, which had been a steady partner of the Congress since 1984, though it went alone in a couple of elections. Now, the Congress has teamed up with the DMK and the BJP may be back with the AIADMK. In sharing the 39 Lok Sabha seats in Tamil Nadu and a lone seat in Pondicherry, the `MGR formula' was adopted till 1996. Under this formula, the national party took two-thirds of the Lok Sabha seats, leaving two-thirds of the Assembly seats to the Dravidian ally. In 1996, the TMC was formed by a section of Congressmen in protest against the Congress aligning with the AIADMK at the last-minute. The DMK and the TMC, which contested together, swept the polls that year.

Since then, there has been a drastic change in the political scene, with smaller parties and grand alliances being the order of the day. The chart provides an idea of the seats contested and won by the main parties in the 1998 and 1999 Lok Sabha elections:

In 1998, the AIADMK led an alliance, including the BJP, the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) and the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK). It was a reversal in the 1999 election, with the DMK leading the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the State, consisting of the BJP, the PMK and the MDMK, among others. Now, except for dropping the BJP and including the Congress, the NDA allies remain together. Communists have also joined this front.

According to current indications, the DPA allies are trying to stick to the number of seats they contested earlier or are suggesting that they contest the number of seats they won last time, plus one. The DMK has shown an "accommodative spirit" and its allies are hoping that "giving or taking one," they will be able to complete this exercise before the month-end. The Congress, party sources say, "has taken a realistic view of the situation."

As for the AIADMK, sources say, "It is the BJP which has come to us and its State leadership has already made it clear they are flexible on seats. Our leader will make the best possible offer, when Mr. Naidu meets her." The BJP may aim for a double-digit, but could be satisfied with a slightly lower number rather than going it alone and losing its presence in the State.

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