The Hindu : The see-saw battle

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Sunday, Feb 01, 2004

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The see-saw battle

General elections in Tamil Nadu have alternately favoured the DMK and the AIADMK, Suresh Nambath reports.

THE FIRST sign of an early Lok Sabha election set off a chain of political realignments in Tamil Nadu. As electoral calculations forced the pace of developments, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, followed by the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and the Pattali Makkal Katchi, walked out of the National Democratic Alliance. The Congress and the Left parties, which had already broken away from the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, were ready and waiting for the formation of a grand alliance.

But getting all the major Opposition parties in the State to join its front, named Democratic Progressive Alliance, was only the first step for the DMK. Discussions on the number of seats to be contested by each party, and the identification of constituencies, are running into roadblocks. All the constituents of the alliance have been asked to settle for a lower number of seats. The PMK, which contested seven seats in Tamil Nadu and the lone seat in Pondicherry in 1999 as part of the DMK-BJP alliance, agreed to limit its claim to five seats in Tamil Nadu and the one in Pondicherry.

The MDMK, which won four of the five seats it contested in 1999, is being offered only four constituencies. The Congress, which won the 2001 Assembly election in Pondicherry without the help of either the DMK or the AIADMK, had to forego the Union Territory to the PMK. It has been offered only 10 seats in Tamil Nadu, less than the 11 it was offered in 1999 in the company of the AIADMK.

Indeed, the large number of allies and the limited number of seats (39 in Tamil Nadu and one in Pondicherry) has seen the alliance discussions for the Lok Sabha polls include the sharing of winnable Rajya Sabha seats. Thus, the DMK has promised one Rajya Sabha seat to the PMK when the vacancies arise next. And the PMK, in return for the Congress agreeing to give up Pondicherry, has promised to transfer its surplus votes to a Congress nominee in the Rajya Sabha poll.

For the AIADMK, the question was whether to go it alone or ally with the BJP. Originally, the AIADMK visualised a non-Congress, non-BJP alliance with the Left parties that could turn out to be the nucleus for a third front at the national level.

Apparently, the AIADMK was hoping for a 1996-type situation where the regional parties supported by the Congress could form a Government.

Indeed, the Tamil Nadu Chief Minister, Jayalalithaa, had, on several occasions, said her problem with the Congress was the foreign origin of its leader, Sonia Gandhi. She had even appealed to the Left parties, the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the "true followers" of Nehru, Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi not to support Ms. Gandhi for the prime ministership. But not only did the third front hopes of Ms. Jayalalithaa prove a non-starter at the national level, she also lost the backing of the Left parties in Tamil Nadu.

The actions and policies of the AIADMK Government alienated the Left, as also the other parties. In the end, the AIADMK was isolated with only the BJP remaining as a potentially useful ally.

The growth of the BJP as a valuable alliance partner since 1996 (when it polled only 2.9 per cent of the votes) has had a big impact on the formation of alliances in Tamil Nadu.

In 1998, the AIADMK, along with the PMK and the MDMK, preferred the BJP to the Congress, which had suffered a split after the Tamil Maanila Congress broke away. In 1999, the DMK joined the BJP-PMK-MDMK alliance after the AIADMK pulled out of the BJP-led Government. This pushed the Congress and the Left parties towards the AIADMK.

In the current election, the DMK, by leaving the NDA, had assured alliance partners in the Congress and the Left parties. Although its break with the BJP won for the DMK its major alliance partners, the Lok Sabha election is being fought by the major Opposition parties on an anti-AIADMK platform. The DMK, the PMK and the MDMK cited the BJP's closeness to the AIADMK as one of the reasons for their decision to quit the NDA.

In this sense, the AIADMK-BJP combine suffers from the anti-incumbency factor at both the Central and State levels. General elections in Tamil Nadu have alternately favoured the DMK and the AIADMK.

In 1996, when elections to the Lok Sabha and the State Assembly were held simultaneously, the DMK-led front swept the poll.

In 1998, when there was a mid-term poll to the Lok Sabha, the AIADMK-led front emerged the winner. In the 1999 Lok Sabha election, the DMK-led front did much better than its main rival. And in the 2001 Assembly election, it was the turn of the AIADMK-led front to come out on top.

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