The Hindu : The game is open... till the very end

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Sunday, Feb 01, 2004

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The game is open... till the very end

Pollsters have already begun to predict a sweep in favour of the NDA, but in the past many predictions have been proved wrong, says Neena Vyas.

THE ELECTION 2004 chessboard is almost ready — the pawns, the knights, the rooks and other players have begun taking their positions. Unlike as in 1998 or in 1999, this time it seems there will be a coalition of sorts arraigned on both the sides. For the first time, the Congress is making serious efforts towards ensuring a direct contest between the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance and a secular front led by the Congress in the maximum number of seats possible.

Two factors helped the NDA in 1999; the Kargil war victory and the fact that the 1998 Vajpayee Government had been pulled down barely a year after it was installed. There was a strong feeling that the Government had not been given a fair chance. This time, neither of the factors is there, and much as the BJP would like to depend on the hype it has created about `Shining India', the hard facts on the ground do not exactly match the advertisement pitch.

The BJP has depended heavily on the fact that the NDA was an alliance of some 24 parties (less three or four now). No single party such as the Congress could possibly stand up to the joint NDA assault. Not even an Indira Gandhi could withstand the onslaught of the Janata Party, a combination of four distinct political entities that came together in 1977. Not growth at the grassroots level, but coalition has been the BJP's recipe for success. And it has openly announced that it is willing to take in anyone or any political outfit that may care to hitch its fortune to that of the NDA.

What the BJP has certainly shown is that even a cumbersome coalition can be stable. In fact, it has plans to showcase this achievement as a first in the politics of India. Coalition politics, NDA style, has come to mean sharing of power. The BJP has helped its allies remain in power in the States even while it has offered some key portfolios to them at the Centre. This has suited the regional parties fine. Parties with three, four or 10 MPs have enjoyed political clout far beyond their strength on the ground, looming large in the States as well as on the national stage.

The main problem for the BJP is that in 1999, it peaked along with its allies annexing 10 of the 10 seats in Haryana with the Indian National Lok Dal (with whom it is having serious trouble now), four of four in Himachal Pradesh along with its post-poll ally, Himachal Vikas Party, seven of seven in Delhi, six of six in Jammu and Kashmir with the National Conference which joined the NDA after the results, 28 of 48 in Maharashtra with the Shiv Sena, about 40 of 54 in Bihar, 36 of 42 in Andhra Pradesh with the Telugu Desam Party, 19 of 21 in Orissa with the Biju Janata Dal, and so on. Sure, it is expected to make some gains in Punjab, where, in 1999, the Congress virtually wiped out the Akali Dal-BJP combine; it may do better in Assam and get a few more seats in Karnataka but it will really have to do much better in the Hindi heartland, especially Uttar Pradesh, to make a marked improvement in its numbers.

The BJP-NDA line-up of alliances will be more or less the same as it was in 1999. However, the one big change is in Tamil Nadu, where all the king's men — the DMK, the MDMK and the PMK — have deserted the NDA. But the BJP is hoping to make up for this loss by aligning with the AIADMK. On January 28, the BJP president, Venkaiah Naidu, met the AIADMK leader and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister, Jayalalithaa, to seal an alliance that will lead to seat-sharing, although it is not clear whether she will join the NDA or remain an outside supporter much like the TDP did throughout the current 13th Lok Sabha. With this new arrangement in place between the BJP and the AIADMK, all the four major players — two national parties, the BJP and the Congress, and two regional parties, the AIADMK and the DMK — would have changed their political partners since 1999.

From the BJP's point of view, the other major change expected is in Uttar Pradesh, where the party has already made moves towards "bringing home" its backward caste leader and one time Chief Minister, Kalyan Singh. However, that will not represent a change since 1999, when Mr. Singh was very much the sitting Chief Minister, and in the BJP. The difference may be in the attitude. In 1999, it was alleged that Mr. Singh had literally sabotaged the BJP from within, while this time, if he were to make his peace and "come home", he can be expected to work to improve the party's performance in the State which accounts for 80 Lok Sabha seats. With Mr. Singh's re-entry into the BJP, the party is hoping to improve its Lok Sabha tally in Uttar Pradesh by about eight to nine seats. That would mean its numbers could go up to about 36.

This time round, there is little chance of the NDA getting 40 of the 54 seats in Bihar — 14 of the seats are now in Jharkhand — where the BJP is facing an uphill task. The Lok Janshakti of Ram Vilas Paswan seems to have more or less made up its mind to hitch its bandwagon to the secular front of the Rashtriya Janata Dal-Congress-Left alliance in Bihar. Mr. Paswan's decision is yet another minus point for the BJP, for, in 1999, he was with the BJP-Samata Party-led front in the State.

In another month, the pawns on the political chessboard will begin to move. The campaign will get under way. However good the NDA looks right now, and it does, the game will remain wide open till the very end.

Pollsters have already begun to predict a sweep in favour of the NDA, but in the past many predictions have been proved wrong.

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