The Hindu : OPTING FOR ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS

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Thursday, Feb 12, 2004

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OPTING FOR ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS

WITH INDIA PLACED in election mode following the dissolution of the Lok Sabha, it now seems increasingly likely that polls to a few State legislatures will be held concurrently with the advanced general election. The Assemblies in Andhra Pradesh and Orissa have already been dissolved and simultaneous elections are virtually certain to take place in these States. The Sikkim Government has recommended the dissolution of its House and has urged the Election Commission to hold elections to the State legislature concurrently with the Lok Sabha poll. In Congress-ruled Maharashtra and Karnataka, the political leadership is mulling over the wisdom of premature dissolution, after having declared it is open to the idea of simultaneous polls. The specific reasons for advancing Assembly polls vary from State to State, but they are broadly based on the perception that bringing them forward will electorally benefit the ruling party or alliance.

In Orissa, Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik, who rolled out a few pre-election sops before his Cabinet recently recommended the dissolution of the House, is planning to ride what he perceives to be a national surge in favour of the Bharatiya Janata Party-led coalition. His decision is something of a gamble since the elected term of the just-dissolved Orissa Assembly extended up to February 2005 and since his Biju Janata Dal (BJD) has just been split by rebels who are waiting to join hands with the Congress. In neighbouring Andhra Pradesh, where the Assembly was dissolved in November 2003, the simultaneity was not planned or intended. It is largely a result of the Election Commission's refusal to hold polls as early as Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu — who was hoping to ride the sympathy wave following the almost successful attempt on his life by left-wing extremists — would have liked. The BJP has repeatedly urged the Chief Ministers of Opposition-ruled States such as Maharashtra, Karnataka and Bihar to call for simultaneous elections. Such appeals are ostensibly based on a public purpose — that of saving the nation the money it would incur on holding elections to these State Assemblies separately. The real reason, however, is not far to seek. Simultaneous elections inevitably lend a national character or flavour to State Assembly elections and the BJP hopes to benefit electorally from this. Simultaneous elections will give the BJP an opportunity to shift the focus from regional issues in State Assembly elections and try and convert them into a presidential-style contest — one between Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Congress president Sonia Gandhi. Ironically the BJP, which recently floated the idea of introducing legislation to synchronise elections and provide fixity of terms for legislatures, is now persuading State Governments to curtail the life of Assemblies after having canvassed for the premature dissolution of the Lok Sabha.

The Congress is aware of the political risks of simultaneous elections; this is why the decision prematurely to dissolve the Assemblies in Karnataka and Maharashtra is still being debated. In Karnataka, the Congress Legislature Party has unanimously declared itself in favour of simultaneous polls. Proponents of dissolution have argued that advancing the elections would provide an opportunity to exploit the existing political environment, which finds the Janata Dal (S) in some disarray. However, there is concern that holding simultaneous polls will be playing into the hands of the BJP by shifting the focus to national issues. In Maharashtra, Chief Minister Sushilkumar Shinde has declared he is "flexible" about simultaneous elections, but prematurely dissolving the House will be at the cost of displeasing the Nationalist Congress Party, which is firmly opposed to advancing the Assembly election, and some top-ranking Congress leaders as well. Given the anti-incumbency mood reported from Maharashtra and the political imperative of the Congress and Sharad Pawar's NCP pulling together, it is extremely unlikely that any unnecessary risks will be taken.

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