The Hindu : Regional parties main threat to NDA

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Sunday, Feb 22, 2004

Opinion

Opinion - News Analysis

Regional parties main threat to NDA

By K. K. Katyal

NEW DELHI: Certain things are obvious but have not attracted the attention of political analysts. One, Sonia Gandhi's emergence as the only campaigner for the Congress at the national level — at the present tone — setting the stage in the run-up to the general election. Two, the major challenge to the ruling National Democratic Alliance is posed not by the Congress but by the regional parties.

Around the time the Vajpayee Government made known its plans to advance the Lok Sabha elections, Ms. Gandhi embarked upon well-publicised "road shows" in western, eastern and central Uttar Pradesh and Orissa, with Andhra Pradesh next in her itinerary. This was meant to be an interactive process; to provide the people opportunities to acquaint her with their problems, instead of making them listen to her at rallies. She took a leaf out of the book of her mother-in-law, who made use of this approach when out of power in 1977-80. There were good reasons for Indira Gandhi to engage in a solo exercise. She had been the main target of attacks by the rulers of the day because of Emergency "excesses" and related matters. And a good number of her loyalists had deserted her during the difficult period.

There are no such compulsions for Ms. Sonia Gandhi. She enjoys the unquestioned support of Congress leaders of various levels and there have been no obstacles placed by the ruling side in her functioning as the Leader of the Opposition. Why then this fancy for solitary campaigning? This, obviously, is a conscious decision. It could be because of the desire to follow the Indira example, in its entirety, the changed context notwithstanding. Or is it because the party has no second-rung leaders with an all-India appeal? Then there is the uncharitable explanation — that the idea is to hog the limelight exclusively for short-term and long-term political ends.

Soon, we are told, some 50 Congress leaders, old and young, will be drafted for the campaign. None of these mentioned, however, will have an all-India appeal. To cite two cases, will Manmohan Singh and Pranab Mukherjee, eminent no doubt, in their own right, attract crowds in all parts of the country? Ms. Sonia Gandhi will continue to be the main star. The mass contact programme helped Indira Gandhi stage a comeback at a time when she was virtually in the wilderness. Will Ms. Sonia Gandhi be equally lucky? It is not clear whether the crowds that flock to her meetings will be converted into supporters at the hustings.

Somewhat simplistically, the Congress (with or without its allies) is supposed to be the main challenger to the NDA. That is not borne out by facts. The ruling combine will have to reckon with powerful regional forces rather than the Congress, in most cases.

In Uttar Pradesh, it will be pitted against the Samajwadi Party of the Chief Minister, Mulayam Singh Yadav, claiming the solid support of the Yadavs from the backward classes and Muslims and the Bahujan Samaj Party, headed by the Dalit leader and former Chief Minister, Mayawati; in Bihar, against the Rashtriya Janata Dal of Laloo Prasad Yadav; in Tamil Nadu, against the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (along with its allies); in Maharashtra, against the Nationalist Congress Party of Sharad Pawar (of course, along with the Congress); in Haryana, against the kisan outfit of the Chief Minister, Om Prakash Chautala; and in Jammu and Kashmir, against the Mufti group. In West Bengal, the CPI(M) stronghold, the BJP is a negligible force, in any case. Regional parties occupy a prominent place in the NDA too — the Akali Dal in Punjab, the Biju Janata Dal in Orissa, the Telugu Desam Party in Andhra Pradesh, the All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in Tamil Nadu. It is only in the remaining areas that the BJP and the Congress will be engaged in virtually straight contests. Included in this category are the three States where the NDA won handsomely in the recent Assembly elections.

The presence of powerful regional groups in the contests against the ruling combine needs to be kept in mind while assessing the nature of the people's response to the `feel-good' factor and the `India Shining' campaign of the NDA.

It may not be a black and white situation, as the ruling combine would like us to believe. It will be a different story if a Vajpayee wave is blowing beneath the surface.

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