The Hindu : India rethinks China policy

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Thursday, Feb 26, 2004

Opinion

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India rethinks China policy

By C. Raja Mohan

The change in India's ties with China appears structural and it has now acquired an unprecedented momentum.

WHILE THE media attention in India remains riveted on the roller coaster relationship with Pakistan, the Government is quietly transforming ties with China. For all the expectations, the peace process with Pakistan remains fragile. It is vulnerable to a rapid mood swing in New Delhi, which could be triggered by a major terrorist incident. The progress in the Indo-Pakistan relationship seems to depend on the survival of one man — Pervez Musharraf — and his policies. In contrast, the change in the ties with China appears structural and has now acquired an unprecedented momentum. The cooperation between the two nations has been institutionalised and covers a wide range. There is that rare national consensus within both nations on the need to intensify bilateral relations.

Nothing illustrates the changed policy towards China under the Government led by the National Democratic Alliance than a recent speech by the Defence Minister, George Fernandes. Six years ago, immediately after the NDA led by the Bharatiya Janata Party took charge in New Delhi, Mr. Fernandes issued a series of public statements critical of China. It generated a media controversy at home and political consternation in Beijing and tended to confirm the image of Mr. Fernandes as a "China-basher." The nuclear tests of May 1998 and India's reference to the China factor in its decision to become a nuclear weapon power brought a harsh response from Beijing. A deep chill descended on bilateral relations. Since then, India and China have come a long way.

In a lecture last week in memory of Air Chief Marshal P.C. Lal, Mr. Fernandes summed up the transformation in Sino-Indian relations with reference to his own past statements: "To set the record straight — may I once again clarify that as the Indian Defence Minister — in response to a hypothetical exigency, I had qualified China as a `potential threat number one'. However, since then, there has been a very positive tenor in the Sino-Indian relationship and this was amply reflected during the visit of our Prime Minister, Sri Atal Bihari Vajpayee, to China in June 2003. The future prospects, in short, are promising and both countries have reiterated this determination at the highest political level on both sides."

This was not an anodyne diplomatic statement. Mr. Fernandes was in fact addressing a provocative question that formed the subtitle of his address: "Prospects for Sino-Indian Relations: adversarial, competitive or mutually supportive?" It was a poser that sums up India's own enduring anxieties about China. Mr. Fernandes, to his credit, sought to provide frank answers.

Since the period of 1959-1962, when Sino-Indian friendship turned into hostilities, New Delhi wore its own concerns about China on its sleeve. But rarely has the Indian leadership acknowledged the concerns of Beijing. Struck by the mirror image in Beijing, Mr. Fernandes quotes what the then Chinese Prime Minister, Zhou Enlai, told the U.S. National Security Adviser, Henry Kissinger, about the India-Pakistan war in 1971 and the liberation of Bangladesh.

While India feared China might open a second front against it in 1971, this is what Mr. Zhou believed: "The worst possibility is what I told Dr. Kissinger — the eventuality that you would all attack China — the Soviet Union comes from the north, Japanese and the U.S. from the east, and India into China's Tibet." Statesmanship is about recognising the anxieties of the other side and factoring them into any bilateral engagement.

Fortunately for India and China, the normalisation of relations after the nuclear tests did not merely restore status quo ante. The dramatic expansion of bilateral trade and economic cooperation in the first years of the millennium has created a different template for bilateral relations. From $200 million in the early 1990s, bilateral trade shot up to $5 billion in 2002 and touched $ 7.5 billion last year. It is expected to touch $10 billion this year.

"Doubling this figure in the next few years is not inconceivable and there are many areas where the two countries can complement each other", Mr. Fernandes says. For decades, India and China have dealt with their ties entirely through the political prism. The two neighbours at last have a blossoming economic relationship that offers a solid foundation for the future and an insurance against political uncertainties.

Mr. Fernandes is quick to point out the prospects for competition, say, in the field of foreign direct investment. But he quotes Mr. Vajpayee to underline the difference between "healthy competition and divisive rivalry." This differentiation has already led, according to Mr. Fernandes, to a new "level of maturity" in bilateral relations, which allows the two nations to "address our differences with a greater sense of urgency without letting them come in the way of development of relations in other areas."

The differences are indeed being addressed. During Mr. Vajpayee's visit to China last June, Beijing had agreed to recognise Sikkim as part of India. The discussion on the boundary dispute has been elevated to the political level and the Special Representatives have held two rounds of negotiations to hammer out "guidelines and principles" for the settlement of the boundary dispute. Mr. Fernandes says these talks have been "friendly and constructive and there is much clearer understanding of each other's position."

Even more important, Mr. Fernandes points to the understanding between the two countries "that there is no fundamental conflict in the strategic and national priorities of India and China, and that neither mutual exclusion nor containment is a valid policy choice." India and China have historically been suspicious about the other's relationships with the major powers, in particular the United States and Russia. Their relationships with the third parties have often had a lasting and negative effect on their bilateral ties. Now, Mr. Fernandes says, "China and India are consolidating their respective bilateral relations with the United States, the European Union, Russia and Japan and none of these relationships are to be construed as being zero sum."

In other words, India will neither join the U.S. to contain China nor align with Beijing in a bloc against Washington. Both are interested in a multidimensional engagement with all the major powers. But cynics would argue that as rising powers in the same neighbourhood, India and China are bound to clash if not tomorrow the day after. Both are involved in modernising their militaries and increasing their reach. Will they, then, run against each other in their shared neighbourhood of Asia?

Underlining the objective reality of the growing strategic capabilities of the two sides, Mr. Fernandes confronts the question: "We must ensure that whatever be the nature of the military profile that China and India acquire in the near future, this must be managed in such a way that there is no mistrust or needless anxiety. Individually and together, such capability must be seen as contributing to regional and global stability." It is not often that India has said that Chinese military strength could be a stabilising force in the region.

The Indian military and the Red Army have been at the forefront of those in both countries who remain distrustful of the other. Mr. Fernandes points to the change taking place, including the recent joint naval exercises. "It is encouraging that despite the adversarial inheritance that India and China have had in the past, today both militaries are moving towards a stable working relationship," he says.

As India and China deal with constructing a stable relationship, Mr. Fernandes highlights two residual problems. One is the "deficit of trust" on China's partnership with Pakistan. "We have had some abiding concerns about China's relationship with Pakistan. This is an area where the deficit of trust must be redressed for it would have a positive bearing both on the bilateral relationship and the overall regional ambience."

Mr. Fernandes finally zeroes in on the larger problem that has prevented cooperation between the two countries — "the deficit in understanding and knowledge" about the other society. Despite being two large neighbours with historic ties, neither side knows enough about the internal political and social dynamics across the border. Mr. Fernandes hopes that the plans for cooperation on tourism and increased people-to-people contact will help plug this huge deficit.

Although it started off on a wrong note in 1998, the Government is now handing over to its successor a new relationship with Beijing and a sensible framework for long-term cooperation. That must go down as one of the most important achievements of the NDA Government, for the incipient Sino-Indian entente has the potential to radically alter India's security environment and restructure the geopolitics of Asia.

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India rethinks China policy