The Hindu : Rapid urbanisation increases earthquake risks

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Saturday, Feb 28, 2004

Kerala

Kerala

Rapid urbanisation increases earthquake risks

By Our Staff Reporter

KOCHI, FEB. 27. A study conducted by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has cautioned people against rapid urbanisation. The study was part of its efforts to evolve a disaster management programme, details of which were given at an awareness campaign on earthquake vulnerability here recently.

In 1995, as many as 2.54 billion were living in cities, out of the world's total population of 5.7 billion. The number of urban dwellers will double by 2025 to nearly 5 billion. At least 80 per cent of the population growth in the 1990s has occurred in urban areas and most of the growth has been in small and medium sized urban centres.

In the developing world, cities with over one million people jumped six-fold between 1950 and 1955 (from 34 to 213). In comparison, the number of cities with over one million population only doubled (from 49 to 112). The majority of the large cities in the developing world were in areas which had a track record of natural calamities such as earthquakes, floods, and landslips.

City authorities in many developing countries have difficulty in providing basic infrastructure and services. As a result, 30-60 per cent of people in the largest cities of the developing world live in densely populated squatter settlements. Demand for land in cities has led to use of unsustainable terrain prone to natural hazards.

Urban development increases the flood risk by disrupting natural drainage channels. Fast-growing cities contain increasing numbers of poorly constructed or badly maintained buildings, leading to unnecessary deaths. Increasing number of industrial complexes and hazardous materials concentrated in urban areas put cities at risk. In the event of a natural hazard, they may cause considerable secondary disasters such as fires, explosions, radiations, etc.

The number of people affected by disasters has been growing at 6 per cent each year since 1960. Of these victims, 90 per cent have been affected by natural disasters. Cities in industrialised countries are also at risk. The 1995 Kobe earthquake killed 6,300 people and incurred financial losses of $100 billion.

Current trends of rapid urban growth and ensuing environmental degradation increase people's vulnerability to disasters. If left unchanged, disasters will take an ever-greater toll on lives and property. Structural measures such as making buildings earthquake-resistant could be adopted. There are non-structural options such as limiting types of land use or providing tax incentives that direct development away from hazard-prone areas. Such measures need not be costly, according to the UNDP. Building earthquake-resistant hospitals, for example, only adds a maximum of 10 per cent to the construction cost.

The UNDP, in association with the Government of India, has undertaken a national initiative for disaster risk management to reduce vulnerabilities of communities in 169 districts in 17 States. These districts include Kochi, Thiruvananthapuram and Kozhikode as Kerala is considered to be a State vulnerable to earthquake.

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