The Hindu : CONGRESS AND TELANGANA

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Monday, Mar 01, 2004

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CONGRESS AND TELANGANA

THE SEAT-SHARING arrangement the Congress has worked out with the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) in Andhra Pradesh for both the Lok Sabha and State Assembly elections has opened up new possibilities as also challenges for the party. After stubbornly refusing to heed the local unit's determined effort to get the party to accept the demand for a separate State of Telangana, the Congress high command has gone ahead and tied up with the TRS to work together against a "common enemy" — the Telugu Desam Party (TDP). It is one thing for the Congress to give away six Lok Sabha and between 40 and 45 Assembly seats to the new ally. More important is its going along with the idea of a separate State, which according to the TRS leader, K. Chandrasekhara Rao, the two parties "will make ... public at the appropriate time." It may be recalled that last year the Telangana leaders of the Congress came close to raising a banner of revolt, saying they would quit should the high command not accede to the demand for a separate State. But the problem was contained for the time being and a regional Congress committee was put in place. Accepting the TRS demand at this stage is bound to have major political repercussions.

At another level, the coming together of several Opposition parties against the TDP makes for a more intense contest for the Assembly elections. While the TDP and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are still tying up the loose ends of their seat-sharing arrangement, the Congress is about to settle a seat-sharing arrangement with the two Left parties too. There is a feeling gaining ground among Congressmen in Andhra Pradesh that there may be a real opportunity for the party to return to power in the State after a decade. Although the TDP did begin with a clear edge when the Chief Minister, N. Chandrababu Naidu, dissolved the Assembly late last year, the sheen may be wearing off. The ruling party may be looking to the BJP to extend the "feel good factor" to Andhra Pradesh — as it did with the potent Kargil effect in the 1999 election. There are indications that the TDP may be worried over the Opposition alliance taking shape. Mr. Naidu could well decide to make Telangana a major election issue, even though his ally, the BJP, has favoured Statehood for Telangana in the past.

Aside from the sensitive issue of Statehood, Telangana has 107 Legislative Assembly seats. Of these, in the last Assembly, the TDP had 50 seats, the Congress 42, the BJP eight, and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) two. This accounts for more than one-third of the 294-member House. There are also 16 Lok Sabha seats at stake. In the event of a close contest, the Telangana results could prove crucial. The TDP will need to sweep the rest of the State to retain power. By parting with a large number of Assembly seats in the Telangana region, the Congress will need to do likewise to come to power on its own. More likely, it will be looking to form a coalition government with its allies, including the TRS. There is also the possibility of a revolt in the Congress, with a number of rebels entering the fray to express their anguish at the way the deal with the TRS has been struck. What has happened in Andhra Pradesh reflects a new willingness and indeed keenness on the part of the Congress to forge alliances and seat-sharing arrangements with parties it would not have supped with even five years ago. Whatever else it does, the Congress-TRS alliance has enlivened the election scene in Andhra Pradesh, making the contest much tighter than it looked some weeks ago.

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