The Hindu : THE KERRY JUGGERNAUT

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Saturday, Mar 06, 2004

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THE KERRY JUGGERNAUT

UNITED STATES PRESIDENT George W. Bush is likely to face a tough re-election campaign with Senator John F. Kerry effectively wrapping up the Democratic party's nomination much earlier than expected. Although Democratic primaries are yet to be held in over 20 States and two other contestants, Al Sharpton and Dennis Kucinich, remain nominally in the fray, the intra-party competition is over for all practical purposes. The only other serious contender, John Edwards, withdrew after he failed to win in any of the 10 States where primaries or caucuses were held on "Super Tuesday," March 2. Mr. Kerry won in nine, including States such as California, New York and Ohio that will send large numbers of delegates to the party convention in July and are also likely to be pivotal in the November 2004 presidential election. While State-wise results show that Mr. Kerry's appeal cuts across geographical regions, data from exit polls indicate that he attracts support from diverse segments of American society. The Democratic primaries were also relatively free of acrimony. All this should ensure that the party will line up firmly behind its nominee and provide him with the organisational strength to rally the faithful who are already energised and determined to oust Mr. Bush from the White House.

Mr. Kerry is superbly placed to shift the focus of his political activities from the primaries to the presidential campaign. While he did not altogether ignore his Democratic rivals after emerging as the front-runner at the end of the first phase of primaries, he has targeted Mr. Bush throughout. However, the Massachusetts Senator did blur his position on key issues as he tried to outflank rivals from the liberal wing of the party. He will now need to redefine his message in order to attract independent-minded voters who hold the balance in an electorate that is more or less equally divided between the two parties. The swift culmination of the nomination process has also created a special problem. With the issue already settled, the public might lose interest in the Democratic campaign and its nominee will have to work hard to be in the limelight with a competitor who holds the most powerful office in the land. Mr. Kerry can utilise the remaining party primaries to put out the message that he will provide a markedly different policy orientation and governing style.

The Democrats know their opponents will run a very negative campaign. Mr. Bush has tried to show that he prefers to remain above the fray, but he has not restrained surrogates who have a taste for dirty fighting. With the Kerry campaign warning that it will give as good as it gets, this year's presidential election is likely to be acrimoniously contested. However, the Democrats will do themselves a favour if they keep the debate focussed on issues rather than personalities. They appear to have struck a chord with a large section of the electorate that is alarmed by the Bush administration's disastrous Iraq policy, disgruntled with its pro-rich economic programme, and disturbed by its divisive agenda on social issues. The man this potential majority can turn towards has built up formidable expertise in the fields of foreign policy and national security during the course of a Congressional career spanning close to two decades. That should enable the challenger to take on an opponent who has crafted his campaign around the theme that he is a "War President". With the Democrats sharpening their critique of the Republican approach to economic, social and international affairs, the American public can look forward at the least to a serious contest on issues that matter and, if Mr. Kerry continues to be in flow, to a far-going political change.

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