The Hindu : Kerry, Bush tied in opinion poll

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Sunday, Mar 07, 2004

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International

Kerry, Bush tied in opinion poll

By Sridhar Krishnaswami

WASHINGTON, MARCH. 6. In the first major poll since Senator John Kerry virtually locked up the Democratic Party nomination, the Massachusetts politician and the U.S. President, George W Bush, are tied. And the `bad' news for the Democrats is that the independent party candidate, Ralph Nader, is drawing some support.

The Republican incumbent in the White House has 46 per cent support; Senator Kerry has 45 per cent; and Mr. Nader who threw his hat in the ring last month has 6 per cent support according to a poll conducted for the Associated Press by Ipsos Public Affairs.

The poll showed that Mr. Bush's approval rating was 48 per cent with the disapproval being 49 per cent, or just about at the same levels as last month. But it is more than a 40 per cent drop since after September 11,2001 when the approval ratings touched 90 per cent and remained in the very high figures for several months.

What is of significance is that in all recent polls the President was either tied with Senator Kerry or was even behind him. But all these surveys did not have the Nader factor to contend with.

Ever since the former Green Party official entered the fray there has been speculations on his impact on November 2,2004.One thinking in a section of Democrats is that Mr. Nader will once again play the `spoiler' role, a characterisation dismissed right away by him.

That `spoiler' label to Mr. Nader has been pinned on ever since the then Vice-President, Al Gore, lost in a very closely contested election to Mr. Bush in 2000.

The then Green Party candidate got fewer than 3 per cent of the vote but the race was so close between Mr. Bush and Mr. Gore in New Hampshire and Florida that if only the Nader votes had gone to Mr. Gore he would have won the election. Mr. Nader not only dismisses this theory but in a broader sense has said that it was Mr. Gore who has to blame himself for the loss in November 2000.

In 2000 Mr. Nader was on the ballot in 43 states and in the District of Colombia. But this time around he is seen as having serious difficulty in getting his name in all the 50 states.

The poll commissioned by Associated Press showed that Mr. Nader was likely to get the support of young adults and independents.

The Independent candidate has said that his main political target was Mr. Bush and that he will not be going after the Democratic Party.

That said Mr. Nader has promised to respond if the Democrats attacked him.

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