The Hindu : Andhra shining differently?

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Monday, Mar 08, 2004

Opinion

Opinion - Leader Page Articles

Andhra shining differently?

By P. Sainath

If the Congress cuts its deals quickly and gets its act and campaign together soon, Andhra Pradesh could undo its 1999 gift to the NDA.

ANDHRA PRADESH was the National Democratic Alliance's happy hunting ground in the 1999 polls. Its friend, the Telugu Desam (TDP), won 29 of the 34 Lok Sabha seats it contested. The BJP won seven of the eight it ran for in a tie-up with Mr. Chandrababu Naidu. This time, too, the State will be a decisive battleground in more ways than one. But this time, the simultaneous Lok Sabha and State Assembly polls could produce a very different result.

In 2004, the TDP-BJP combine faces a far greater challenge. One that could do more than change the State Government. It could undercut the NDA at the Centre, too. Andhra Pradesh ranks alongside Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra in importance in this election. Even in 1999, it helped the NDA experiment survive.

In that year, the TDP-BJP tie-up took 36 of the State's 42 seats. In the ratio of seats won to seats contested, that was the best result for any front the BJP was part of, in any major State. And the second best in absolute terms after Bihar (41/54 with the JD-U). The TDP's `outside support' was vital to the NDA in the Lok Sabha.

There's a fair chance the story could end differently this time. The deal the Congress has struck with the Telangana Rashtriya Samithi (TRS) will help it surge in that region. Both in the 107 Assembly and in the 15 Lok Sabha seats there. If it can clinch its seat sharing with the Left soon, it will gain in all regions. An effective Congress-Left-TRS deal could see huge changes in the pollscape.

There are 15 Lok Sabha seats in the Telangana region, where the Congress front seems ahead already. There are eight in Rayalaseema and 19 in Coastal Andhra. The Congress vote share in Andhra Pradesh rose four per cent in 1999. It even got more votes than the TDP. But it could not upset the math of the TDP+BJP combine. Fighting alone, it lost badly, winning just five of 42 seats.

Yet of the 29 seats the TDP took, 11 were closely fought. Seven of those, it won by margins of less than 3 per cent. Some of the most tightly contested seats showed margins of 0.46, 1.16 and 1.85 per cent. This, against a divided opposition.

In the two seats of these 11 where the TDP won by 5 per cent, there were Left candidates undercutting the Congress. The CPI got 16 per cent of the vote in Bhadrachalam and the CPI(M) 4 per cent in Nellore. With Congress-Left adjustments, both seats become vulnerable.

There were at least two other seats, Pedapalli and Warangal, that the Congress would have won had it tied up with the Left in 1999. Some BJP wins were also frail. In three of seven seats where it won, its margins were just over two per cent. Two of those were Karimnagar and Medak — both in Telangana where a united Congress-Left-TRS vote could upset them

In 1999, the Congress fared worst in Telangana. It took just two of the region's 15 Lok Sabha seats. Both the Congress and the Left fought alone and against each other. This time, their tie-up will have a big impact here.

In the Assembly polls, the major battle lies in the 134 seats of Coastal Andhra. Why? With its TRS-Left alliance, the Congress has the edge in Telangana. And that front could grab 70 seats of the 107 in the region. (The Congress on its own took 42 in 1999).

The distress Telangana has seen in recent years will not help the TDP-BJP. Lakhs of poor people migrated to other States last year seeking work. Take just the district of Mahbubnagar. In some estimates, a third of the populace was working outside it during much of the dry season. ( The Hindu Sunday Magazine, June 1, 2003.)

Anger has only grown in a region that anyway has a strong sense of ill treatment. Agriculture lies shattered and rural debt has exploded. Farmer and weaver suicides continue. Mahbubnagar's case is poignant. This poorest district of the State is less than 100 km from hi-tech Cyberabad. Its reality offers a very different view of Mr. Naidu's model of governance. But the media's embrace of Mr. Naidu ensures his policies seldom get the scrutiny they deserve.

Congress leader Y. S. Rajashekhar Reddy's padayatra through Telangana and Coastal Andhra last year surprised his own supporters. Mr. Reddy is from Rayalaseema. Yet the response to his tour saw even pro-Naidu media giving it huge daily coverage.

Meanwhile, with Rayalaseema seeing him as a possible Chief Minister, there is a fallout there, too. In 1999, the TDP grabbed 31 of the region's 53 seats. The Congress took 21. Alliance math and regional trauma could reverse that ratio this time. This is where Anantapur is. A district where some 2000 people, most of them farmers, have committed suicide since 1997. Drought was one part of it. The crushing of small farms was also policy-driven. Soaring input costs, lack of credit, the collapse of purchasing power, all these pushed many over the brink. And lakhs migrated from here, too, last year.

Mr. Naidu has been trying for a year to shed his anti-poor farmer image. This is hard work. Last April-May — after his Government declared there was no hunger in the State — hundreds of citizen-run "gruel centres" sprang up in Telangana and Rayalseema. These makeshift free kitchens drew huge numbers of hungry rural poor. ( The Hindu Sunday Magazine, June 15, 2003).

It is in the 134 seats of Coastal Andhra that Mr. Naidu's political skills will be tested most. The last time, his front took 98 seats here. This time, he will play his `Telangana card.' This is, in short: The Congress is allying with the separatist TRS. A separate Telangana means a break-up of our beloved State. Defeat the Congress to save Andhra.

This could have a very powerful emotional impact. One that could touch Rayalseema, too. But it is diminished by the fact that his ally the BJP was the first national party to commit itself to a separate Telangana. In Telangana, the Congress front is ahead. And in Rayalseema, Mr. Naidu might cede some ground. So losses in Coastal Andhra spell big trouble for him and the NDA.

Had the Left been with it in 1999, the Congress would have gained close to 30 additional seats. That's apart from the seats the Left (which fought 93) would have gained. Instead, they ended up with 91 and two respectively in the 294-seat assembly. The TDP took 179 and the BJP 12.

The Congress lost some 24 seats with tiny margins (about ten of them by less than 700 votes). Further, in 40 seats where it won by low margins, the Congress vote would have been much higher, but for the presence of Left candidates. In itself, that means little. But this time, it could improve the segment-wise performance of their Lok Sabha candidates.

Take a look at those seats where the Congress won — but where the Left also had candidates. In close to 35 of those, the Congress-Left would jointly have taken over 50 per cent of the vote. In ten of those 35, they would have drawn 55-60 per cent. In 11, between 60 and 70 per cent. So a deal with the Left helps the Congress significantly in both Assembly and Lok Sabha seats.

The Left in Andhra Pradesh has votes in most constituencies. Even in the 201 it did not contest in 1999. The votes it could have brought to the table would have swung many more seats against the TDP. More so in a closely fought election. The BJP won 12 of the 24 seats it contested in 1999. But it could have lost half of these had the present tie-up existed then.

Yet Mr. Naidu too, has his own weapons. The first is of course the Congress-TRS tie up. He will harp on a possible break-up of the State. The Congress is yet to get its reply off the ground. It has so far not fully pressed home farmers' issues. Its campaign is poor and throws up few alternative policies. And trouble looms ahead in candidate selection and revolts. Mr. Naidu will also try setting the TRS against the Left.

Two, the TDP gains from the Congress failure to formally name its chief ministerial candidate. Though Mr. Rajashekar Reddy seems the Congress choice, the TDP will make an issue of it: Naidu vs Who? Naming Mr. Rajashekar Reddy — a non-Telangana man — could blunt the "break-up-of-Andhra" campaign.

Third, Mr. Naidu's media blitz could make the BJP's India Shining campaign seem dull in contrast. He's put years of effort into what the latter is attempting in weeks. In the past few months, he's managed hours of airtime every day for days at a stretch on six private channels to report his `achievements' to the public. With public money.

Fourth, the Opposition's worst nightmare is the timing of the polls. They come in a season where lakhs of poor, angry citizens are outside the State and cannot vote.

Even so, this is not 1999. If the Congress cuts its deals quickly and gets its act and campaign together soon, Andhra Pradesh could undo its 1999 gift to the NDA.

Printer friendly page
Send this article to Friends by E-Mail

Opinion

News Update

Stories in this Section

REVOLT IN THE LTTE

CHANGE AND CONTINUITY AT IMF

Andhra shining differently?

A Khan-for-Osama deal?