The Hindu : After Spain, Poland fears it is next

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Thursday, Mar 18, 2004

Opinion

Opinion - News Analysis

After Spain, Poland fears it is next

By C. Raja Mohan

WARSAW, MARCH 17 . As Europe braces for possible terrorist attacks in the aftermath of the Madrid massacre, Poland has many reasons to be concerned that it is high on the target list of the Al-Qaeda network. Poland is one of the most loyal new allies of the United States in Europe and is a major contributor to the stabilisation force in Iraq.

Although terror threats have been issued to other nations like France, which were in the forefront of the European criticism of the American war in Iraq, the U.S. allies such as Britain, Poland, Italy and the Netherlands have begun to see themselves as the most likely victims of terrorism.

There is a widespread conviction in Europe that the targeting of Madrid by the Al-Qaeda was not a random one. It is seen as a calculated decision to mount domestic pressure against those Governments which chose to join the U.S. war on terror.

The intense popular opposition to the policies of the Bush administration in Europe have sharply divided the European political classes. The terrorist attacks on Spain had helped change the outcome in the weekend's general elections against the ruling conservative allies of the U.S. and also brutally exposed the vulnerability of America's European allies.

Poland, inexperienced in fighting terrorism, could be targeted by Islamic extremists in retaliation for its involvement in the war in Iraq, its officials here believe. Zbigniew Siemiatkowski, who heads the Polish Intelligence Agency, told local media here that Poland has increased the security presence at airports, stations and border crossings. In a bid to prepare for any eventuality, Polish commandos are believed to have conducted mock-terrorist attacks on its railway system.

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Even more worrisome for Poland is the quick decision announced by the new leadership in Madrid that it will withdraw Spanish forces from Iraq by the end of June, if there is no larger international involvement in Iraq either under the framework of the United Nations or the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation.

Poland has about 2,500 troops in Iraq and commands an international contingent that includes 1,600 Ukrainians, 1,300 Spaniards and smaller forces from a diverse group of nations, including Kazakhstan, Thailand and Honduras.

The prospect of the Spanish withdrawal has sharpened the debate here on Poland's own involvement in Iraq. Before the Spanish elections, Poland was banking on Madrid to take over the command of the international sector in Iraq by the end of summer. This would have given the opportunity for Poland to draw down its own military presence in Iraq.

For now, the Prime Minister of Poland, Leszek Miller, is putting on a brave face as he pledges to keep troops in Iraq. Any backtracking, Mr. Miller told the Polish media, "would amount to an admission that the terrorists are right and they are stronger than the whole civilised world."

"Our most important task in Iraq is to train Iraqi security forces," the Deputy Defence Minister of Poland, Janusz Zemke, told a group of visiting Indian writers. Polish troops are training 4,000 Iraqi military men and 16,000 policemen. "Once these forces are trained and equipped," Mr. Zemke said, "there is no need to keep Polish troops in Iraq."

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The decision to send troops to Iraq has not been popular in Poland. Recent surveys here had shown that 55 per cent of the population was opposed to the move. Since the Madrid bombing the opposition had grown, Polish officials said.

The political logic of sending troops seemed an appealing one even for the former communists who now rule Poland.

Explaining the decision to the Indian visitors, the Deputy Foreign Minister, Boguslaw Zaleski, underlined two important factors. First, "it was pay-back time to the United States. If we are the self-proclaimed allies of the United States, we had to prove it in Iraq," Mr. Zaleski said.

Poland has had an enduring romance with America. There are 10 million Americans of Polish origin in the United States. The Polish elite says it cannot forget the support of the United States in helping the foundation of modern Poland after the First World War and the encouragement Washington gave to the Solidarity movement in the 1980s that led opposition to Communist rule.

Less romantic, but equally important, has been the consideration of economic benefit. Poland was hoping that sending troops to Iraq would result in major commercial contracts in the reconstruction of Iraq.

Poland, thanks to the old Soviet connection, has had expansive contacts in Iraq and was involved in the development of infrastructure during the years of the oil boom. At least 40, 000 Poles had worked in Iraq over the years.

These expectations have not been met so far. Warsaw has got contracts worth only $50 million since the U.S. occupation. A major attack on the Polish troops in Iraq or a significant terrorist incident here could transform the political attitudes in the country.

The minority Government here is aware of the potential consequences but in the short run it sees no alternative to staying the course with Washington in Iraq.

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After Spain, Poland fears it is next