The Hindu : A test for Narendra Modi

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Sunday, Mar 21, 2004

National

National - Elections 2004

A test for Narendra Modi

Jyotirmaya Sharma

Not too long ago, the Gujarat Chief Minister, Narendra Modi, was seen by the Bharatiya Janata Party as a man who had successfully executed the Hindutva experiment in Gujarat. In a State that has often been called the laboratory of Hindutva, Mr. Modi was perceived as the party's star performer and ideological anchor. The Godhra carnage and its bloody aftermath were seen as instances of his `successful' translation of doctrine into action.

Mr. Modi himself offered the infamous action-reaction explanation about the communal conflagration in Gujarat to justify what many independent observers perceive as the complicity of the State Government in the riots of February-March 2002. Yet in the eyes of his party, Mr. Modi could do no wrong.

He was given the credit of reclaiming the lost glory of Gujarat; indeed, he made this his main poll plank in the Assembly elections held the same year and won handsomely. The BJP saw in him a likeness of Sardar Patel and crowned him with the chhota sardar title.

In less than two years, Mr. Modi has managed to antagonise a very large section of the BJP in the State. Disaffection in the BJP and its conglomerates will decisively affect the performance of the BJP in the coming Lok Sabha elections. This is especially so because there are no emotive issues any longer that could determine the poll outcome. Hindutva is no longer an issue. Invoking the memory of Godhra too can open a can of worms for Mr. Modi and the BJP, an option they are unlikely to exercise.

Mr. Modi is caught this time round in a resurgence of local issues that got buried during the highly charged Assembly election campaign of 2002 on the one hand, and questions about his style of leadership within his party, on the other.

The Koli leader and dissident BJP MLA is more forthright than many others. He finds Mr. Modi self-centred and egoistic. This sentiment is privately voiced by a large section of BJP MLAs, who find the Chief Minister remote and inaccessible. They reminisce about Mr. Keshubhai Patel, who deftly managed a system of patronage and kept everyone happy. In sharp contrast, many complain that Mr. Modi does not consult them and does not `do their work.' Kanubhai Patel of the Bharatiya Kisan Sangh, an RSS-supported farmers outfit, openly questions Mr. Modi's integrity and style.

While a large section of the party MLAs speaks of the Chief Minister's megalomaniacal style of functioning, this has led to a severe lack of development of the BJP in Gujarat as a party of government. It has singularly failed to evolve a distinctive culture of its own and a voice of its own at the grass roots level. Various factions within the party seem to be pulling in different directions, with senior leaders such as Mr. Keshubhai Patel waiting for an opportunity to trip Mr. Modi at the slightest provocation.

Many senior Gujarat observers see this as the Congressification of the BJP in Gujarat: a party ridden with factionalism and depending on the party high command to settle local issues.

Mr. Modi's handling of the cooperative bank scandals in the state has also earned him the ire of several sections of the party. Many of the accused in scandal are prominent BJP functionaries, who blame the chief minister for taking a moralistic stand in the case and not coming to their rescue.

The Supreme Court's intervention in the riots of 2002 has also created a peculiar situation. Several BJP MLAs and local party functionaries allegedly involved in the post-Godhra riots feel `abandoned' and are beginning to question Mr. Modi's ability and willingness to `protect' them.

One way of handling dissent within the party would have been to introduce a series of administrative and policy measures to neutralise dissent. These, however, have not been forthcoming. Instead, Mr. Modi has come up with a number of slogans that have a purely emotional content. "Apnu Gujarat, Agavun Gujarat or Our Gujarat, Unique Gujarat," was the first slogan he coined to capture the voters' imagination. Today, his ambitious scheme to create a sweet water lake in Cambay called Sujalam Sufalam, invoking the memory of Vande Mataram, is yet another instance of coining an evocative slogan. The restive farmers and the OBCs seem not to care for much of this and are demanding solutions to real issues.

The only thing that ensures Mr. Modi's survival as Chief Minister is the TINA (there is no alternative) factor.

His rivals such as Keshubhai Patel and Suresh Mehta are either too old and infirm or perceived as too `gentlemanly' and soft. There is no other leader of stature who could effectively replace Mr. Modi.

The coming elections will be a test of the effectiveness of the BJP as a party of government rather than as an outfit pushing an ideological agenda. Given his background of being an RSS pracharak, Mr. Modi has few equals in furthering the cause of Hindutva.

What is on test, however, is his effectiveness as a party manager and administrator. For the BJP, the elections next month are a referendum on Mr. Modi as much as they are on the Vajpayee Government at the Centre.