The Hindu : Mayawati leaves opponents foxed

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Sunday, Mar 21, 2004

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National

Mayawati leaves opponents foxed

By J.P. Shukla

LUCKNOW, MARCH 20. The selection of Bahujan Samaj Party candidates in Uttar Pradesh has forced its opponents to sit up and think as they have been unable to comprehend the logic behind the calculations of the BSP leader, Mayawati, though realising quite well that she has created problems for them.

Her choice has all of a sudden changed the electoral arithmetic in several constituencies that were considered safe for others, especially the Samajwadi Party and the Congress.

The BSP had repeatedly asked the Congress to snap its ties with the Samajwadi Party if it wanted to formalise an electoral alliance with it. As the Congress wavered, Ms. Mayawati toughened her stand and the list of her candidates now released indicates that she has made the going tough for the Congress even in some of its strongholds.

As for the Samajwadi Party, it has always been "Enemy Number One" of the BSP ever since June 2, 1995 when, according to her, the SP "goons" made an attempt on her life.

That she would do everything to block the SP path was never in doubt.

In Rae Bareli constituency, widely considered a bastion of the Gandhi-Nehru family which was represented in the dissolved Lok Sabha by Captain Satish Sharma, the BSP has this time nominated a Scheduled Caste candidate, Ganga Ratan Pasi.

In the past elections she had tried only backward caste candidates to contest from the constituency. This time it is expected to be a fight between the Scheduled Caste candidate of the BSP and caste Hindu candidates likely to be fielded by others, which may result in a sharp polarisation of votes.

In nearby Pratapgarh represented by Ratna Singh of the Congress in the last Lok Sabha, the BSP has decided to field a Brahmin candidate, Shiv Prakash Mishra "Senani". In the past elections Pratapgarh witnessed mainly a fight between the supporters of the Congress leader, Pramod Tiwari, and the independent MLA, Raghuraj Pratap Singh, presently detained under POTA. Brahmins generally rallied behind Mr. Tiwari to support Ratna Singh. How things change this time with the entry into the fray of Mr. Mishra could be anybody's guess.

The BSP's nomination of Afroz Ali Khan from Rampur, one of the constituencies with a stronghold of minorities, has created similar roadblocks before Noor Bano, the Congress winner of 1999. Polarisation of votes on communal lines and division of minority votes among non-BJP parties helps only the saffron forces.

BJP candidates were winners in two of the four past elections from this constituency because of this factor and the Congress feels Ms. Mayawati was all set to help the BJP. As for the SP, it had failed to come into the reckoning in this constituency in the past several elections.

Similar experimentation has been done by the BSP while selecting its candidates in other constituencies, including Lakhimpur Kheri, Mathura, Jaunpur, Faizabad, Baghpat, Etawah, Shahjehanpur, Azamgarh and Jalesar.

In Lakhimpur Kheri, Ms. Mayawati has decided to field a Muslim candidate, Daood Ahmed, the outgoing Member of Parliament from Shahabad, as against backward caste candidates fielded by her in preceding elections.

That has become a problem not only for the 1999 Samajwadi Party winner, Ravi Prakash Verma, but also for the State BJP chief, Vinay Katiyar, who decided to go to Lakhimpur Kheri in search of a safe seat abandoning Faizabad from where he was elected in the last elections.

The BSP leader has also made attempts to prevent minority votes to go into the kitty of the Rashtriya Lok Dal leader, Ajit Singh, in Baghpat by fielding against him a Muslim candidate, Chaudhary Aulad Ali.

In all, the BSP has nominated 18 Muslim candidates, including one Nasir Ali Siddiqui, in the Lucknow constituency to fight against the Prime Minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee.

By her pre-emptive decision she has not only deprived the Opposition of giving a united fight to Mr. Vajpayee but also made it easier for him to win, feel non-BJP opponents of the BSP.

By nominating a comparatively larger number of minority candidates on behalf of her party, Ms. Mayawati would once against be able to claim that no other party is prepared to serve the interests of minorities better than her own BSP.

The BSP list finds names of eight Thakur and five Brahmin candidates to provide strategic superiority to its fight against the Opposition in select constituencies.

That has not only shattered the dreams of the forces of secularism to checkmate the BJP but also made the election results unpredictable in many constituencies that have been forced to witness fierce four-cornered contests.

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