The Hindu : Malaysia to go to the polls today

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Sunday, Mar 21, 2004

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International

Malaysia to go to the polls today

By P. S. Suryanarayana

SINGAPORE, MARCH 20. Tomorrow's first general election in Malaysia after the retirement of the long-reigning Prime Minister, Mahathir Mohamad, has turned, during the campaign phase itself, into a truly post-Mahathir political event.

With Dr. Mahathir, an ebullient and pro-active leader while in office, keeping a low profile , his successor, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, has managed to turn the poll into a virtual referendum on his credentials for a prime ministerial term .

The "Anwar factor'' has also disappeared as a possible determinant of the outcome of the poll . The `politics' of Anwar Ibrahim, imprisoned former Deputy Prime Minister, had played an important part in the 1999 parliamentary poll . Mr. Anwar, who challenged Dr. Mahathir for the hearts and minds of the majority Malay community in 1998, was dismissed on charges of corruption and sex-related `offences'.

As Mr. Anwar was later convicted and sent to prison, his supporters — including his wife, Wan Azizah — formed a political outfit, Keadilan, and joined forces with the Opposition, but they failed, by a wide margin, to unseat Dr. Mahathir in 1999 .

But now the main Islamist outfit, Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS), has emerged as the biggest `beneficiary' of that `factor' since 1999. According to several political leaders and observers in Malaysia, the outcome of the election is predictable. They see signs of a definitive victory for the governing Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition under Mr. Abdullah's leadership, despite a stiff fight that the PAS is waging in a few provinces, particularly Kelantan and Terangganu. A two-third majority for the BN, in the enlarged 219-member Parliament, is widely projected to be on the cards. The BN's own protagonists place the number of "black constituencies'', which might not vote for the ruling national coalition, at just about 30.

The BN, led by the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), includes parties representing the minority communities of Chinese and ethnic Indians. For the moment, the coalition, turned into a well-oiled vote-gathering machine during the long years of Dr. Mahathir's rule, remains intact, with Mr. Abdullah having made no conspicuous efforts to remodel the group in the few months he has served as Prime Minister so far.

The broad agenda of the BN includes multiracial co-existence that would not threaten the political predominance of the majority Malays. The dynamics of this agenda should be seen in the context that the cumulative population of the non-Malays is only moderately less than that of the largest single-community.

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