The Hindu : Freedom Alliance has an edge

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Sunday, Mar 28, 2004

International

International

Freedom Alliance has an edge

By Nirupama Subramanian

COLOMBO, MARCH 27. With less than a week before Sri Lanka's April 2 parliamentary election, the race is still close between the Ranil Wickremesinghe-led United National Front (UNF) and the Freedom Alliance of President Chandrika Kumaratunga.

However, available indications suggest the Freedom Alliance — a combination of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party and the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna — may emerge as the single largest party in this election.

The forerunner of the FA known as the People's Alliance, of which the SLFP was the main constituent, won 37.3 per cent of the vote in the 2001 election, while the JVP got nine per cent. Together, they could edge out the UNF, which came to power in the last election with 45.6 per cent of the vote.

Arithmetic apart, the FA has been able to turn this election into a vote on the economic performance of the government rather than on the UNF's only achievement of the last two years — the ceasefire with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam.

"Peace is no longer the main issue because there has been no war for two years and people have got used to that. The main issue today is the cost of living," said Dushini Weerakoon, an economist at the Institute of Policy Studies.

A recent survey by the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA) here found that for a majority of the voters Sri Lanka's unresolved Tamil question took a back-seat compared to economic issues such as cost of living and unemployment.

In its campaign, the UNF paints the grim scenario of a return to war if the FA is elected, projecting the seven-year rule of the PA between 1994 to 2001 as a period marked by fighting in the North-East and LTTE terrorist strikes in the south. It has also tried to recall the violent past of the JVP, which led two armed insurrections in southern Sri Lanka. But such a strategy may be working against the UNF rather than for it, said Ketheesh Loganathan of the CPA.

"People do not want to be reminded of the war and violence. The UNF is trying to whip up a fear psychosis and people do not like that," Mr. Loganathan said.

According to the CPA survey, voters are more prepared to believe that of the two leaders, Ms. Kumaratunga would not compromise on national interest while negotiating peace, even though they think that Mr. Wickremesinghe is better equipped to handle the peace process.

Another advantage for the FA is that with Ms. Kumaratunga's term in office as President lasting till next year, voters do not want one more co-habitation experiment with her and a UNF government led by Mr. Wickremesinghe struggling for supremacy.

This has been one of the most peaceful elections in recent times. Still, the Centre for Monitoring Election Violence, an independent group, recorded more than 1000 incidents until Thursday.

The UNF has been named the perpetrator of most of these incidents.

While the FA may emerge as the single largest grouping, a question mark hangs over its ability to get enough seats to form the government, especially if the Buddhist monks who are contesting this election manage to make a dent in its vote base.

The UNF has a perceived ally in the Tamil National Alliance, a proxy group of the LTTE, but the FA has no natural allies outside its own coalition.

In the post-election scenario, the ability to find friends and cobble together enough numbers to make a majority will make the difference between winning this election and losing it.

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