The Hindu : KARNATAKA ELECTORAL PROSPECTS

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Wednesday, Mar 31, 2004

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KARNATAKA ELECTORAL PROSPECTS

ALTHOUGH THE BHARATIYA Janata Party has concluded a seat-sharing agreement with the Janata Dal (United) in Karnataka, its efforts to polarise the popular vote and take full advantage of the anti-incumbency factor in the Congress-ruled State have run into obstacles and limitations on the ground. The dogged mobilisational efforts of the Janata Dal (Secular) led by the former Prime Minister, Deve Gowda, in the southern parts of the State seem to have set the stage for a three-cornered contest in several key districts. The Congress Government of S.M. Krishna will be hoping to scrape through thanks to a more-than-marginal division in the Opposition vote. Although the alliance between the BJP, which won seven seats in the 1999 Lok Sabha election, and the JD(U), which won three, looks strong on paper, the JD(U), after the death of Ramakrishna Hegde and several desertions, is a pale shadow of itself. Many of its leaders have defected to the Congress or the BJP. The latter, by allotting four Lok Sabha seats to the JD(U), was perhaps trying to please the national leaders of the party, which is a key ally in Bihar. The BJP initially announced its intention to contest all the seats, but an agreement was later forged with the help of national level leaders.

The ruling Congress, which had the confidence or complacency to advance the Assembly election synchronously with the Lok Sabha election, will be striving to deflect some of the anti-incumbency sentiments to the National Democratic Alliance Government led by the BJP at the Centre. The failure of the NDA regime to amend Article 371 of the Constitution to provide constitutional protection for reservation quotas for backward classes in government jobs and educational opportunities, despite a request from the State Government, is now a major issue in north Karnataka. Another issue is the drought. While it is true that the Centre did little to ease the severe effects of the drought, it is the State Government that is drawing the flak for allegedly mismanaging relief measures and playing down the gravity of the situation. Apportioning blame will thus be an important part of the election campaign. The Janata Dal (S), which has had no share in power either at the Centre or in the State, appears ideally placed to exploit the anti-incumbency factor but its support base happens to be limited to southern Karnataka. While a Statewide polarisation is unlikely, the problem for the Congress is a sort of dichotomous regional polarisation: between the Congress and the BJP in the north and between the Congress and the JD(S) in the south. Even so, there are several areas such as Mysore, Hassan, Bangalore Urban and Chikmagalur where both the BJP and the JD(S) are strong and therefore will have to share the anti-Congress vote between them.

While the Assembly election, in which the JD(S) is also a key player, might see a three-cornered contest, the Lok Sabha election, where the Congress and the BJP are the major players, could see a more direct contest. Opinion polls show a surge in favour of the BJP, which can hope to corner a greater share of the Opposition vote in the Lok Sabha than in the Assembly election. It would be surprising if there was a large divergence between the voting patterns in the State Assembly and Lok Sabha contests. In the 1999 election, the BJP suffered from a sort of anti-incumbency factor: its ally, the Lok Shakti led by Hegde, had merged with the Janata Dal ruling the State. This time the challenge for the BJP is to tap the anti-incumbency sentiment and corner the non-Congress vote by marginalising the other major Opposition party, the JD(S). An unexpectedly strong revival of the fortunes of Mr. Deve Gowda's party would be very much to the advantage of the incumbent.

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